California's reservoirs are celebrating while Guerneville is hit hard, twenty years of entitled land in Windsor still can't find a builder willing to break ground, and the county's $1 million to $2 million homes are sitting with 28% more inventory than last year while nobody's rushing to buy them. 

Meanwhile, a $300 paint job might be your secret weapon for selling in a market where lime green walls are scaring off nearly three-quarters of buyers, and if you're planning to close escrow anytime soon, picking the wrong day of the month could cost you an extra $850 in prepaid interest that you'll never see again. And speaking of Healdsburg, two new luxury listings are hitting the market where walkability meets acreage, proving that even in a cooling segment, location still writes the biggest checks.

The Russian River's atmospheric rivers are filling Lake Sonoma to 120% of normal levels while simultaneously flooding Highway 116 and forcing Guerneville schools to close, creating the ultimate wine country paradox 

Sonoma County's $1 million to $2 million price range just added 27.6% more inventory year-over-year with absorption rates collapsing to 29.1% monthly, meaning it now takes over three months to clear existing supply while new listings mysteriously dropped 13.8%

Windsor's 20-acre parcel near the SMART station is attracting its fourth developer in two decades with a 260-townhome proposal, representing everything right and wrong about California housing: prime transit-oriented land that somehow can't get built despite desperate need and multiple approved plans.

Pour yourself something good and settle in—this week's data gets weird in all the right ways.

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Market Insight

Wine Country's $1M-$2M Homes: 28% More Inventory, Nobody's Buying

The preliminary December 2025 data is now out, and we pulled Q4 2024 vs Q4 2025 numbers across all of Sonoma County. Instead of the usual two-tier breakdown, we went deeper—splitting the market into four segments to see what's really happening. Here's what the data reveals.

County-Wide Snapshot

The market's normalizing with mixed signals. Inventory climbed 16.6% while sales held steady, up 4.9%. Days on market increased 22.3%, and median price remained stable at $787K, up just 0.5%. The notable trend: new listings crashed 22.7%—inventory growth isn't from fresh supply, it's from slower absorption.

Under $1M: Active but Cooling

This segment still dominates activity but shows clear deceleration, with homes sitting noticeably longer than last year.

• Inventory up 18.1%, yet new listings fell 23.1%—the growth comes from extended marketing times, not new supply

• Absorption rate of 57% leads all segments but dropped from 61.5%, while days on market jumped 25.2%—biggest percentage increase across all tiers

• Median price dipped 2% to $706K—the only segment showing price decline—and sold/original list ratio fell to 95.7% from 97.3%, giving buyers negotiating leverage

$1M-$2M: Inventory Pileup

This range shows the most stress, with inventory surging while sales velocity slows dramatically across the segment.

• Inventory exploded 27.6%—the steepest increase of any segment—while new listings dropped 13.8%, creating a classic supply/demand disconnect

• Absorption collapsed 14.1% to just 29.1% monthly, meaning it takes over three months to clear inventory, and days on market rose 21.2%

• Median price climbed 4.9% to $1.30M—a counterintuitive bright spot amid the inventory buildup

$2M-$3M: Modest Gains

The most stable premium segment is showing surprising resilience, with improving fundamentals despite higher price points.

• Inventory up just 6.6%—smallest increase of any tier—while sales jumped 19.4%, delivering the best growth performance

• Absorption rate of 14.1% actually improved 6% year-over-year, making this the only segment with better absorption than last year

• Median price edged up 1.5% to $2.39M, and days on market increased 16.7% but performance remains relatively strong given the price point

Over $3M: Frozen Market

The luxury segment remains essentially paralyzed, with sellers slashing prices to attract the handful of qualified buyers.

• Inventory flat with zero movement, while new listings collapsed 43.2%—the steepest drop anywhere in the market

• Sales and absorption completely unchanged—literally frozen at last year's levels

• Median price crashed 12.2% to $3.95M—the most dramatic decline—and marketing time stretched to 163 days, more than double the sub-$1M segment

What This Means for Buyers

You have leverage in most segments. Under $1M offers breathing room with longer days on market and negotiating power, though competition remains at 57% absorption. The $1M-$2M range delivers maximum buyer advantage with 27.6% inventory growth and weakening absorption—take your time. Above $2M, the $2M-$3M segment moves surprisingly fast on quality properties, while over $3M is pure buyer's paradise with 12% price drops and zero urgency.

What This Means for Sellers

Price aggressively or prepare to wait. Under $1M needs realistic pricing as the market corrects with 2% price declines and extended marketing times. The $1M-$2M segment requires patience and differentiation amid inventory bloat, despite 4.9% price gains. $2M-$3M sellers benefit from improving absorption but still need competitive pricing. Over $3M demands a reality check—the 12% price drop means overpricing guarantees six months on market.

The absorption rate chart (included) tells the story: bifurcation is intensifying. Below $2M shows activity with cooling pressure. Above $3M is frozen solid. The $2M-$3M sweet spot offers surprising resilience.

The collapsing new listings across all segments reveals seller hesitation—inventory growth comes entirely from slower sales velocity, not fresh supply. That dynamic shapes 2025's narrative.

New Listings

Why Nobody Lists Homes in December (And Why That's About to Change)

New listings dropped 23% in Nov/Dec compared to last year's Q4. Turns out people would rather eat pie than stage their homes during the holidays.

But here's what happens next: January through March, sellers start remembering they wanted to move. By April and May, it's a full-on feeding frenzy. Acreage properties and Russian River homes wait even longer—nobody wants to list when there's still a chance their backyard becomes a lake.

Which means the smart buyers are already looking at what's coming. Here is a sneak preview of a few we have coming.

The Early Preview:

1042 Harold Lane, Healdsburg | 3 bed, 2 bath, 1,626 sqft on .19 acres | $1.1M City limits living without the HOA drama. Close enough to walk to wine, far enough that tourists don't end up in your driveway.

210 Burgundy Road, Healdsburg | 3 bed, 3 bath, 1,728 sqft + gym/office | 1.31 acres | $1.5M That extra acre means your home gym doesn't share a wall with your neighbor's drum practice. The office setup means Zoom calls with actual natural light.

9239 Lakewood Drive, Windsor | 2 bed, 2 bath, 1,728 sqft | .09 acres | Price TBD Windsor's quiet play. Square footage of a 3-bedroom without the extra room you'd just fill with boxes anyway.

New Listing For the Spring...But View Now:

1127 Highland Ranch Road, Asti 3 bed, 2 bath, 2,527 sqft on 6.34 acres | $1.785M Six acres of wine country land where the math suddenly makes sense. Hand-chipped travertine, Siberian oak, solar that actually works, and no catch. Watch the tour before someone does their own math and books it first.

Want first look at this before the spring rush? Hit reply.

Local News

Highway 116 Washout Could Last Until Summer—8-12 Month Closure Ahead

Highway 116 just became West County's biggest infrastructure headache. The eastbound lane near Monte Rio washed out when the Russian River surged 20+ feet, cresting at 30 feet in Guerneville. Caltrans implemented one-way traffic controls that could last 8-12 months once repairs begin.

The damage breakdown:

• Two-stage construction process required: first will be a retaining wall for support, second will be a wall plus drainage system

• Project cost: millions in state emergency funds

• Timeline: No start date yet, but repairs could stretch into peak summer season

• Current status: One-way traffic with brief full closures expected for equipment moves

This isn't Highway 116's first rodeo. Crews just finished repairing a December 2024 landslide in Guerneville's Montesano neighborhood this past summer. A $14 million project east of Monte Rio already has one-way traffic in place. The alignment between pulsing river and steep hills makes this stretch a winter trouble spot.

Then Guerneville got hit with another problem: a sewage spill during the same storm system. The town's dealing with wastewater issues while managing flood monitoring as the river hit action stage at 29 feet.

Meanwhile, the same atmospheric rivers causing chaos filled Lake Sonoma from 57% to 65% capacity in days. It's now at 120% of historical average for January. Statewide reservoir storage hit 129% of normal. The drought is over, but West County is paying the price.

Other Sonoma County storm damage:

• Wohler Bridge in Forestville

• Westside Road near Hacienda Bridge

• Fitch Mountain Road in Healdsburg

• Harrison Grade Road outside Sebastopol

County estimates storm repairs under $1 million this year versus $10-15 million in past winters. But for Russian River properties, this is your annual reminder: check those flood maps before you fall in love with a river view.

Lifestyle News

The $300 fix that could sell your home faster in 2026

Planning to sell in 2026? Most sellers panic about expensive kitchen renos or bathroom overhauls. But here's the plot twist: a strategic paint refresh might be your smartest move.

A 2025 survey of home staging pros revealed that 73% flagged lime green as the most buyer-repelling interior color, followed by bold pink (42%), red (35%), and purple (33%). 

Dark, saturated shades like terracotta and dusty rose are turning off 2026 buyers who want light-filled, versatile spaces. Even Behr’s 2025 Color of the Year—a bold, ruby red—sparked debate. Designers often note that reds and purples are notoriously polarizing and difficult to live with long-term, and many are already saying last year’s choice feels dated as trends move on.

The winners? 

• Warm neutrals are having a massive comeback

• Light reflective whites (Sherwin-Williams Shoji White, White Duck)

• Grounded beiges and tans (Universal Khaki leads 2026 trends)

• Soft earth tones (mocha ice, pale terracotta, desert hues)

• Subtle blue-greens (secondary to warm neutrals)

Why this matters 

Paint typically recoups 80-100% of costs versus kitchen remodels at 50-70% ROI. You're looking at under $500 for a targeted room refresh that signals move-in readiness and broadens your buyer pool. While we don't have Sonoma County-specific paint trend data, the national shift toward organic, warm tones aligns perfectly with Wine Country aesthetics. Grab a paintbrush this weekend. Your future buyer is already picturing their furniture against those warm, welcoming walls.

Local News

Twenty years. Three developers. Zero shovels in the ground.

That's the track record for a 20-acre parcel in Windsor that's become the town's most stubborn development puzzle. Now City Ventures is taking a swing with a proposal for 260 townhomes featuring a "paseo" design—basically fancy pedestrian walkways connecting clusters of homes—right near the SMART train station.

The site sits in prime real estate territory for transit-oriented development, the kind California desperately needs. Yet it's watched three previous developers come and go with approved plans that never materialized. Welcome to the California housing paradox: entitled land that somehow never gets built.

Why projects fail despite approval:

• Financing gaps crush viability—especially after redevelopment agencies dissolved, cities lost critical infrastructure funding

• Construction costs in California have skyrocketed, making penciled-out projects suddenly unprofitable

• Affordable housing requirements, while necessary, can tip marginal projects into the red

•  CEQA lawsuits and local resistance create delays that kill momentum

City Ventures' paseo concept aims for walkable, village-style living with affordable units baked in. The SMART station proximity is a genuine asset for buyers wanting Bay Area access without Bay Area prices. For Windsor residents who've watched this lot sit empty since the early 2000s, cautious optimism feels appropriate.

The broader question

If a well-located, transit-adjacent, entitled parcel can't get built in housing-starved Sonoma County, what does that say about California's ability to solve its crisis? Windsor's Town Council will decide if attempt number four finally sticks.

Real Estate Guide

Wine Country's 2026 Price Explosion? The Data Says Otherwise

Everyone's predicting a 2026 price explosion in Sonoma County, but the data tells a radically different story. While California forecasts 3.6% statewide growth, Wine Country is operating as two completely separate markets—and understanding this split changes everything about your investment strategy. Over 20% of county purchases are second homes, locals are buying investment properties at four times the rate of San Francisco buyers, and luxury homes over $2 million have dropped 13.2% while sub-$2 million properties gained value. 

Watch our latest video to discover what's really happening and how to position yourself before rates drop to 6%.

Key takeaways you'll learn:

• Why the sub-$2 million market (85% of transactions) is behaving completely differently than luxury properties, and which segment offers the best opportunity for your investment goals

• How mortgage rates dropping from 6.6% to 6% creates $30,000-$40,000 more buying power but simultaneously increases competition by 15%—and why timing your pre-approval now matters more than waiting for perfect conditions

• The shadow inventory phenomenon trapping thousands of sellers with 3% mortgages (costing them $20,000 annually to move), and exactly when this pent-up supply could flood the market

• City-by-city opportunities from Rohnert Park's $743,000 entry point to Healdsburg's $976,000 bifurcated market, plus the vacation rental regulations that create 20-30% premiums in eligible coastal zones

Real Estate Guide

The Closing Date Mistake Costing Wine Country Buyers $800+

Most homebuyers focus on getting the right price and loan rate, but timing your closing date? That's where you can save real money.

The Golden Rule: Close at Month-End

Closing on the last day of the month means you skip prepaid interest charges. Here's why that matters:

• Mortgage mechanics: Mortgage interest is paid in arrears (for the previous month)

• Early month closings hurt: Close on January 5th? You pay interest for January 5-31 upfront, then your first payment covers February

• Late month closings win: Close on January 31st? You pay one day of interest, then your first payment covers February

• Real savings: On a $800,000 loan at 6.5%, that's roughly $850 saved by waiting until month-end

Avoid These Closing Days

• Fridays are risky: Wire transfers can get delayed if issues arise over the weekend

• Quarter-end chaos: End of quarter (March 31, June 30, etc.) means lenders get slammed with volume

• Holiday headaches: Major holidays mean banks close and title companies have limited staff

The Sonoma County Reality Check

In competitive markets like Healdsburg or Sebastopol, you rarely control closing dates—sellers often dictate terms. But if you have flexibility, use it strategically.

The average Sonoma County home price sits around $850,000. Shaving $800-1,000 off closing costs by timing it right? That's money better spent on your first dinner at Valette or exploring the Russian River Valley.

If you're selling, closing early in the month gives you more time to move and collect that final month's worth of days in your home.

Current Listings

What’s Happening This Week

Quivira Cooking Classes - Handmade Pasta & Italian Classics
Where: Quivira Vineyards, 4900 W Dry Creek Road (Healdsburg, CA)
When: Sunday, January 11, 2026 • 11:00 AM – 2:00 PM
Why You Should Go: Get your hands dirty in the best way possible—learning to make handmade pasta at an organic estate winery in Dry Creek Valley. Combine culinary skills with wine tasting surrounded by beautiful gardens and vineyards.

The Post-Holiday Blues Mini Rock Fest 
Where: The California Theatre, 1335 Mendocino Avenue (Santa Rosa, CA)
When: Saturday, January 10, 2026 • 2:00 PM – 5:00 PM
Why You Should Go: Three bands, big sound, one afternoon. Osito, Rose Stone & Bad Reputation kick off 2026 with a high-energy mini music fest that'll shake off any lingering holiday malaise.

Live Jazz at Furthermore Wines 
Where: Furthermore Wines, 328-A Healdsburg Avenue (Healdsburg, CA)
When: Friday & Saturday, January 10-11, 2026 • 5:30 PM – 8:30 PM
Why You Should Go: This downtown Healdsburg tasting lounge (just a half-block from the Plaza) brings in Grammy-winning jazz talent for free shows every weekend. Sip coastal Pinot Noirs while listening to world-class musicians in an intimate setting—it's basically having your own private Blue Note experience in Wine Country.

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• Check our YouTube channel for weekly local market updates (and occasional winery mishaps)

David & Jonathan here – the guys who write about real estate but really just want to talk about our favorite taco trucks. Hit us up about anything Sonoma County (or beyond). Whether you're buying, selling, or just want to know which wineries actually welcome dogs – we've got you covered.