Wall Street Is Out, the Fed Is Waiting and the Ghosts Are Checking In

Wall Street's big landlords are selling, the Fed just hit pause, and somewhere near Sonoma a ghost named Victoria is waiting for the fog to roll in. It's a busy Halloween weekend in Wine Country.

• 34% of Sonoma County homes went to buyers who didn't move in, up from 28% a year ago, and above $3m it's nearly two in three

• The Fed held rates, but traders put December hike odds at 84.6%. Here's what today's rates cost on a median Sonoma County home

• A $2,500 report found a $736,050 tax deduction on one local vacation rental, and existing owners can look back too

Pour something suitably spooky, pull up a chair on the patio and settle in.

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Market Insight

Wall Street Is Selling. 34% of Our Buyers Aren't Moving In.

Wall Street has stopped shopping for houses. Wine Country's weekend crowd went the other way.

Nationally (first half of 2026):

• Investors bought 224,000 homes, down 7% and the fewest since 2020

• That's 10.7% of U.S. purchases. In the San Francisco metro, just 8.6%

• Mega-investors (351+ purchases) have cut buying nearly 70% since 2021 and now sell more homes than they buy

• Small investors (1–10 purchases) make up 66.2% of investor buying, a 15-year high

• 55.5% of investor deals were all cash

In Sonoma County (2,619 sales, April through September 2026):

• 34% were second homes or investments, up from 28% a year earlier, and they spent 42% of the dollars

• Comparing April through July only, it's still 32%, up from 28%

• Sonoma Coast: 95%. Russian River: 59%. Healdsburg: 53%. Sonoma Valley: 49%, up from 39%

• Santa Rosa and Petaluma: 25%. Windsor: 22%

• Above $2m: 58%. Above $3m: 65%

• 59% of these buyers still spent under $1m

Not quite apples to apples. The national count only tracks LLCs and trusts, while ours includes every weekend-cabin owner. Still, it's a gap you could park a wine truck in.

Translation: Wine Country's typical "investor" is less hedge fund, more Bay Area couple who needed somewhere to keep the wine club shipments. Selling above $2m? Your buyer probably already owns a home, so market the weekend, not the commute.

Real Estate News

Sonoma County's Luxury Sellers Took a 22% Haircut. Prices Didn't Budge.

Some wealthy owners are trading Sonoma County for Texas and Nevada. Others are just leaving the hillside estate with the well, the septic and an insurance bill that reads like a second property tax. In our latest video, David breaks down who's selling at the top and where the money is going instead.

The squeeze on estate owners:

• Eight countywide special taxes push the sales tax floor to 9.25%

• Property tax runs 1.15% of the purchase price, or mid-$40,000s a year on a $4m estate

• FAIR Plan insurance rates rise 30% on average this month

Our $3m+ data (last 15 months):

• New listings jumped 56% in the first half of 2026 versus late 2025

• In February, 2 homes sold countywide while around 80 sat

• Days on market hit 241 last winter, up from 49

• At the low point, sellers got 78% of original asking. On $4m, that's an $880,000 haircut, a very expensive trip to the barber

• Yet the median sale held near $4m

Where the money is going: a 1,000-plus-acre Sonoma Mountain estate sold for a record $38.5m in August, while buyers below trophy level want lock-and-leave homes near the Healdsburg plaza, where well-priced in-town homes still move while the hillside estates sit.

The move: Buying above $3m with cash? You're shopping the most negotiable corner of the county. Selling? Get your own insurance quote before your buyer hears "FAIR Plan" mid-escrow.

Market Insight

The Fed Pressed Pause. Traders Are Already Fast-Forwarding to December.

The Fed hit pause on Wednesday, which in 2026 Fed-speak translates to "see you in December."

What happened nationally:

• The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote

• Both dissenters wanted a hike now, including Lisa Cook, usually one of the committee's doves. When the doves start voting like hawks, pay attention

• Inflation is running at 3.7%, and the Fed is still digesting September's hike, its first since July 2023

• Traders put the odds of a December 9 hike at 84.6% and are betting on two or three more over the next six to eight months

• Plot twist: starting fall 2027, one of the Fed's eight annual meetings becomes a strategy session with no rate vote. Finally, a Fed meeting that can't ruin your week

What it means for mortgages: Freddie Mac's 30-year average fell to 7.24% this week, its lowest of the month, but rates ticked back up to 7.35% after the announcement. A year ago, it was 6.17%.

Bring it home: on a Sonoma County home at the Q3 median of $796,000 with 20% down, the gap versus last year adds $452 a month to principal and interest, or $5,424 a year.

Bottom line for buyers: The Fed isn't riding to the rescue. If rates dip before December 9, lock it in and let the Fed watchers do the worrying.

Real Estate News

The $2,500 Report That Found a $736,050 Tax Deduction

Most $2,500 reports end up in a drawer. This one found a $736,050 tax deduction.

A few weeks ago we explained how cost segregation works. Now we have real numbers from a Sonoma County vacation rental.

The case study:

• A Santa Rosa vacation rental bought in June 2026 for $1,724,600

• A cost segregation study produced a $736,050 federal deduction in year one

• Up to $512,000 of it can offset the owners' W-2 income in 2026 as joint filers, with the rest carried forward

• Study fees start at $2,500 for a single-unit property

Where the money was hiding:

• The land split. The assessor put land at 72.9% of the value, but comparable lot sales said 23.9%. Land never depreciates, so that gap is worth a fortune

• The yard. Pools, landscaping, irrigation, fences, decks and wells often count as 15-year property

The fine print: guests must average seven nights or fewer, you must materially participate, and it's federal only, since California doesn't follow bonus depreciation. The house has to be ready for guests by December 31 to count for this year.

Already own one? A "lookback" study can claim the depreciation you missed on this year's return. See what a cost segregation study finds on your house (we may earn a referral fee).

Thinking about buying one? Email David directly at [email protected] to run the numbers, tax angle included, before you write an offer.

Pro tip: Call your CPA in November, not April. Nobody ever found $736,050 by waiting for tax season.

Real Estate News

Coming Soon Went Public. The Off-Market Pitch Just Lost Its Secret Sauce

Real estate's secret menu just got printed on the front of the building.

As of Monday, October 26, listing agents on our local MLS can push Coming Soon listings straight to Zillow, Redfin and Homes.com. How we got here plays like a reboot nobody asked for:

• Compass popularized Coming Soon to test pricing, and critics say it also kept listings in-house so the brokerage could represent both sides

• Zillow objected, and the two ended up in a lawsuit

• Compass struck a deal to publish its Coming Soon listings on Redfin

• Zillow fired back with Zillow Preview

Now everyone can do it. Full circle.

How it works locally:

• Up to 30 days in Coming Soon status

• Price change history and days on site stay hidden online during that window

• The seller decides whether the address is shown

The side effect: sellers calling us after hearing the off-market pitch. Sometimes it makes sense, depending on the time of year, the property and the seller's situation. For most homes, it doesn't. If you could show your home to 423 million home buyers or 6.1 million, which would you pick? Nobody throws a party and invites only the people already in the kitchen.

Our take: Weighing off market against the MLS? Ask us. We'll give you an honest answer, even if it's not the one you hoped for.

Lifestyle News

Eight Sonoma County Spots Where the Guests Never Checked Out

Some Sonoma County homes come with vineyard views. Others come with guests who never checked out.

The Fairmont Sonoma Mission Inn & Spa just made Historic Hotels of America's list of the 25 most haunted hotels in the country, as it has every year since 2019. It has company.

Where to get spooked this weekend:

• Fairmont Sonoma Mission Inn & Spa, Boyes Hot Springs (1927): a settler named Victoria, who celebrated her wedding there, is said to wander the grounds when the fog rolls in

• Sebastiani Theatre, Sonoma (1933): a former stage manager, a teenage girl in a yellow 1920s dress in the restroom mirror and a Shadow Man in the balcony

• Buena Vista Winery, Sonoma (1857): a cleaning crew reportedly quit after watching a figure climb the tasting-room stairs

• Sonoma Plaza Ghost Walking Tour: $30 a person

• Phoenix Theater, Petaluma (1905): a security guard quit mid-GWAR show after spotting a little boy in 1920s clothes who wasn't there. Of everything at a GWAR show, that was the dealbreaker

• Washoe House, Petaluma (1850s): investigators declared it haunted in 2016, cowboy hat included

• Hotel La Rose, Santa Rosa (1907): a boy named Daniel rides the elevators looking for his parents, and Room 42 has a reputation

• Potter Schoolhouse, Bodega (1873): the schoolhouse from Hitchcock's "The Birds," plus a cradle that rocks itself. It's a private home, so admire it from the road

Prefer history to haunting? The Fairmont's historic walking tours run the second Sunday of each month, next on Nov. 8.

Staying in? Leave the porch light on. Just maybe skip Room 42.

Local News

A Dog Park, a Burned Hilton and America's Best Resort

Twenty-five years ago, the best spot on the Healdsburg plaza was a dog park. Today the town's hotels need a bigger trophy shelf.

How we got here:

• In the 1990s, a Marin County developer eyed the empty lot, then a dog park and rose garden. Banks balked at an unproven market, so the family largely bootstrapped it

• Dry Creek Kitchen opened in October 2001 with chef Charlie Palmer and a Sonoma County-only wine list. Hotel Healdsburg opened a month later

• Palmer's newest project, Appellation Healdsburg, opened in September 2025 and was voted the No. 1 resort in the continental U.S. by Travel + Leisure readers

The comeback: nine years after the Tubbs Fire destroyed the 250-room Hilton in Santa Rosa's Fountaingrove, the Round Barn Hotel opens on the same hilltop in late November or early December.

• 108 rooms, 55% fewer than the Hilton, on purpose

• A restaurant, bar and an octagonal pool house honoring the old barn

• 35 cottages could follow, with no timeline yet

Still checking in: Soho House's 50-cottage ranch near Kenwood and the 100-room Caesars Republic in Alexander Valley, both aimed at 2027.

Worth the drive: Hotel Healdsburg throws open its lobby on Nov. 6, 7–9 p.m., with live jazz, sparkling wine and birthday cake. We'll be near the cake.

New Listings

Eight Listings, Eight Lifestyles, One Very Good Zip Code

The best thing about Healdsburg? It has everything buyers are looking for: the food, the wine, the river, the quiet and a commute that's really a bike ride. Our listings cover the lot.

Want to swim in the Russian River without loading the car? The single-level at 778 S Fitch Mountain Rd sits next to Badger Park, one of only two public river-access points in town. Prefer water you can hear from bed? 14183 Chalk Hill Rd has year-round creek frontage, plus an elevator and a guest suite for the in-laws who swear they're only staying the weekend.

Want vines without the farming? 7616 Highway 128 comes with about two and a half acres that someone else tends. Need room for the dog to run? 3229 W Dry Creek Rd offers six acres and a room just for washing the dog afterward.

Car-optional living starts at 560 Matheson St: a wraparound-porch classic half a mile from the Plaza, renovated down to the roof and windows, with vaulted ceilings in every bedroom and a sunken garden hiding a six-person hot tub. Dinner downtown, nightcap at home or room to host family and friends. The wellness crowd will head to 2563 Mill Creek Rd for the sauna, cold plunge and hot tub circuit, which guests will gladly pay for.

Plot twist: the two-unit fixer at 2590 N Fitch Mountain Rd is the only home with a Healdsburg address listed under $300,000 right now. And this spring, 17785 Healdsburg Ave hits the market: a single-level ranch on a private half-acre with a bocce court, a fire pit and vacation-rental eligibility.

The short version: every home here is a BruingtonHargreaves listing, and Healdsburg was never a one-size town. Tell us which buyer you are, and we'll show you the door that fits.

New Listings

On the Market This Week

778 S Fitch Mountain Rd, Healdsburg — $2,695,000
A remodeled single-level home with a heated pool on a private third-acre, under a mile from the Plaza and next to Badger Park's river access.

7616 Hwy 128, Healdsburg — $2,575,000
The perfect wine country home for entertaining with pool and every outdoor living amenity imaginable

560 Matheson St, Healdsburg — $2,395,000
An extensively renovated three-bedroom with a wraparound porch and private designer gardens with a hot tub, half a mile from the Healdsburg Plaza.

3229 W Dry Creek Rd, Healdsburg — $1,995,000
Modern luxury meets peaceful Wine Country living on six private acres.

16530 Laughlin Rd, Guerneville — $1,495,000
A rare Guerneville property with a pool overlooking a vineyard.

2563 Mill Creek Rd, Healdsburg — $1,400,000
Mill Creek Road seclusion west of Healdsburg, and a great vacation rental.

14183 Chalk Hill Road, Healdsburg — $1,195,000
A creek-fronted, remodeled retreat on a private oak-shaded lot offering rare seclusion and water frontage

8268 Valley View Dr, Sebastopol — $1,075,000
Patio coffee, nearby wineries, and Bodega Bay 20 minutes away, from a remodeled 3-bed Sebastopol home.

180 Johnson St, Windsor — $499,000
The rare sub-$600k entry point in Windsor — the county's tightest, fastest-moving price band.

2590 N Fitch Mountain Rd, Healdsburg — $299,000
A two-unit fixer on Fitch Mountain, a rare way into Healdsburg to make your own river retreat, flip or rental.

See every BruingtonHargreaves listing →

Lifestyle News

What's Happening This Week

Scream 30th Anniversary Screening
Where: Andrews Hall, Sonoma Community Center, 276 E. Napa St. (Sonoma, CA)
When: Saturday, October 31, 2026 • 2–4 p.m. • $25
Why You Should Go: Thirty years later, Ghostface is back on the big screen, with Noble Folk ice cream before the film. Costumes are welcome, but masks and prop weapons aren't, so leave the knife at home.

Spooky Jazz with Elaine Jennings
Where: Furthermore Winery tasting room, 328-A Healdsburg Ave (Healdsburg, CA)
When: Saturday, October 31, 2026 • 5:30–8:30 p.m. • No cover
Why You Should Go: Pinot and haunting standards, costume optional. The most grown-up way to trick-or-treat.

Halloween with Eric Lindell & The Westside Summer League
Where: Forestville Club (Forestville, CA)
When: Saturday, October 31, 2026 • 9 p.m.
Why You Should Go: Blues and soul in a classic river-town bar. The late show for anyone who still has some costume left in them.

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• Check our YouTube channel for weekly local market updates (and occasional winery mishaps)

David & Jonathan here – the guys who write about real estate but really just want to talk about our favorite taco trucks. Hit us up about anything Sonoma County (or beyond). Whether you're buying, selling, or just want to know which wineries actually welcome dogs – we've got you covered.