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- Sales surge 83% While Inventory Drops By Half
Sales surge 83% While Inventory Drops By Half
David Hargreaves
October 17, 2025
A wildfire-weary Sonoma County just got the green light to start burning again, national foreclosures are climbing at the fastest rate since 2021 while our market stays bulletproof, and right here in Healdsburg, homes under a million dollars are vanishing so fast that buyers are facing a staggering 83 percent sales surge with half the inventory to choose from.
CalFire has finally authorized controlled burns across the county as recent rainfall reduces fire danger, but the real plot twist involves murky La Niña forecasts, shrinking Eel River flows from dam removal, and water managers hoping early storms refill reservoirs before spring arrives with questions nobody can answer.
Bank-owned properties nationwide jumped 41 percent in August as overleveraged pandemic buyers hit financial walls, with Florida leading the foreclosure charge at rates twenty times higher than our region, proving once again that Sonoma County's high barriers to entry filter out the speculative chaos plaguing other markets.
Healdsburg's housing market just recorded its strongest quarter in years with sales surging 49 percent, but here's the kicker: homes under a million are moving in just 71 days with an absorption rate that nearly doubled to 51 percent, meaning more than half of available affordable inventory sells every single month while new listings dropped by half.
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Pour yourself something good and settle in—your weekend reading just got a whole lot more interesting.
Real Estate News
Healdsburg Homes Under $1M Vanishing Fast as Sales Surge 83%
Healdsburg's housing market just posted its strongest quarter in years. Sales surged 49 percent compared to Q3 2024, while the absorption rate climbed 40 percent to 19 percent. That means nearly one in five available homes sold each month.
The catch? New listings dropped 26 percent, creating a supply squeeze that's forcing buyers to move fast on what hits the market.
Homes sold at 96 percent of asking price, down from 99 percent last year. But here's the reality check: the gap between original list price and final sale price widened to 7 percent. Sellers are still starting too high.
Under 1 Million: The Hot Zone
Sales under 1 million jumped 83 percent year over year while new listings got cut in half. The absorption rate nearly doubled to 51 percent. More than half of available homes under 1 million are selling monthly.
These properties move in 71 days, 10 days faster than the Healdsburg average. If you're hunting for your first Sonoma County property, expect competition and come pre-qualified.
1 Million to 2 Million: The Sweet Spot
Sales grew 47 percent with inventory up just 18 percent. Buyers here take their time, average days on market jumped 49 percent to 89 days. This segment gives you room to be selective, but turnkey properties priced right are still moving steadily.
Over 2 Million: The Luxury Shift
Closings dipped 10 percent, but pending sales exploded 140 percent. Something's brewing. Properties under contract haven't closed yet, but this suggests serious buyer interest is returning to premium homes.
Days on market dropped 31 percent to just 61 days when luxury properties price correctly. But the sold to original list price gap widened 4.4 percent, the biggest drop across all segments. Luxury sellers need price adjustments.
For wine country lifestyle seekers, Healdsburg delivers world class dining, intimate tasting rooms, and genuine small town community. The market data confirms what locals already know: you can upgrade your quality of life while making a sound investment.
Local News
CalFire Says Burn Baby Burn—But There's a Water Catch
CalFire just gave residents the green light to resume controlled burns. If you've got a valid agriculture or residential burn permit, you can finally clear those vegetation piles, provided temperatures stay low and humidity stays high.
Agricultural burns require CalFire inspection before you light anything. Residential burns may need approval from the Air Quality Management District. Always check burn day status first: 877-466-2876 for southern Sonoma County, 707-565-2876 for northern areas. Your local fire district might have additional requirements.
Even if you're not planning to burn anything, this signals good news. Recent rainfall has reduced fire risk enough for CalFire to trust conditions again. It's a psychological shift for Sonoma County residents who've spent months watching the calendar and worrying about wildfire season.
The water question
With fire season behind us, attention turns to what winter will bring. NOAA forecasters predict La Nina conditions, which typically means drier weather for Southern California. For Northern California? The forecast gets murky.
Recent storms delivered significant rainfall to Sonoma County, but La Nina could still mean milder, drier conditions through spring. That uncertainty matters for everyone from farmers planning irrigation to property owners evaluating water reliability.
Here's where Sonoma County stands: The region just wrapped a wet year with rainfall 24% above the 30-year average. Lake Sonoma sits at 90% of seasonal capacity, Lake Mendocino at 64%. Both reservoirs serve over 600,000 customers across three counties.
Last November's atmospheric river dumped 13 inches across most of Sonoma County over four days, saturating soil and creating runoff that carried through winter. Water managers hope for similar early-season storms to recharge watersheds and reduce reservoir releases.
The reliability problem
Long-term NOAA forecasting has proven unreliable for Northern California, which sits on a dividing line between Pacific Northwest and desert Southwest weather patterns. Jeanine Jones from California's Department of Water Resources called the forecasts "simply not accurate."
The Eel River dam removal adds another layer of complexity. Sonoma County has relied on supplemental water flowing through a century-old tunnel system from Eel River reservoirs. Once PG&E's Scott Dam comes down, those flows disappear, keeping more water in the Eel for endangered steelhead and salmon.
Lake Pillsbury, the reservoir at the top of that system, is exceptionally low for October as PG&E releases water to maintain dam structural integrity before decommissioning.
What this means for property owners
Current Lake Sonoma storage could last two years without replenishment. That provides cushion for the 600,000-plus customers along the Highway 101 corridor.
The region's infrastructure improvements include pioneering forecasting technology at Lake Mendocino that fine-tunes dam releases, avoiding the wholesale dumps that previously left reservoirs depleted by spring.
As always, we tell people to plan for the worst and hope for the best!
Real Estate News
National Foreclosures Surge, But Sonoma County Stays Strong
The foreclosure landscape is shifting fast. Bank-owned properties surged 41 percent year-over-year in August, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. That's the biggest jump since 2021, with 3,246 homes reverting to lenders last month compared to 2,302 in August 2024.
Here's what's driving the spike:
Florida leads the charge with foreclosure rates hitting 1 in every 1,087 homes. New Jersey and Illinois round out the top three trouble spots. Nationally, one in every 3,652 homes faced foreclosure in August.
The trend reflects a cooling market where overleveraged buyers from the pandemic era are hitting financial roadblocks. Rising insurance costs, property taxes, and stubborn interest rates are squeezing homeowners who stretched to buy at peak prices.
What this means for Sonoma County
While national foreclosure data is climbing, Sonoma County remains relatively insulated. California's foreclosure rate sits lower than the national average, and our local market's stability reflects strong employment and higher barriers to entry that filter out speculative buyers.
For investors, this creates a complex picture. Foreclosures can mean opportunity, but in Sonoma County, inventory remains tight. Distressed properties here are rare compared to Florida or the Rust Belt. If you're hunting for value plays, you'll need patience and get the inside track on fixers before they come on the market
For sellers, this reinforces Sonoma County's resilience. You're not competing with a flood of bank-owned bargains dragging down values.
Listing Update
200K Price Drop: 30-Acre Sonoma Waterfall Estate Now $2.3M
Here's what $200,000 buys you in most markets: maybe a down payment. A really nice car. A year of private school tuition.
At 1194 Felta Road, it just saved you $200,000.
We've dropped the price from $2.5M to $2.3M on this 30-acre retreat that comes with its own waterfall and a 24-foot-deep pond with a deck built for summer afternoons. This is a family who spent three decades planting redwoods, raising five kids along 2,000 feet of creek, and creating the kind of place where neighborhood children came to swim and play. Now they're ready to pass it on.
The 1910 Craftsman main house, guest house, studio loft, and historic barn are all waiting. The pond is still perfect for your morning kayak or evening swim. Fitch Mountain views haven't gotten any less stunning. The only thing that changed is the number.
Think about it this way: you're now saving enough to fully renovate one of the outbuildings, fund your first year of turning this into a mini-vineyard, or just bank it while you figure out which of the endless possibilities here speaks to you.
Sometimes the universe sends a signal. This might be yours.
Lifestyle News
$8.3M Cash Sale Reveals Why Billionaires Are Hoarding Healdsburg Homes
The most expensive home in Downtown Healdsburg just sold for $8.264 million—in cash. The 337 Matheson St property just closed in 65 days in a market where luxury buyers are moving fast, and here's why: Healdsburg has engineered permanent scarcity by capping new construction at just 40 homes annually in a town where tech billionaires compete for proximity to world-class dining (one of only four US restaurants in the global top 80) and 70-minute access to San Francisco's financial district. Property values doubled over the past decade—from $940K to $1.8M—while downtown condos now hit $2,000+ per square foot.
Watch the full video to discover why 64% of 2023 buyers were non-residents, which neighborhoods will explode when the SMART train arrives in 2027, and how cash-dominant buyers create a recession-resistant market that outperformed most of California during the last downturn.
Key insights you'll get:
Why the $8.264M sale signals a new price ceiling for in-town properties and what it means for your investment timeline
The exact buyer profile dominating this market: Bay Area executives earning 20-30% above local wages who see Healdsburg as relatively affordable
How the 40-home building cap plus 4.5 square miles of city limits creates appreciation rates of 15-20% annually for Plaza-adjacent properties
Which luxury developments (Mill District, Montage, Hotel Appellation opening September 2025) are reshaping the $3M-$7.5M segment
The hidden advantage: why high cash-purchase rates and generational wealth transfers insulate Healdsburg from interest rate volatility
Real Estate News
Why 57% Occupancy Loses to 51% in Sonoma Rentals
Fresh analysis from property management company Vinifera Homes just dropped some numbers that should change how you think about vacation rental investing in Sonoma County.
The Healdsburg vs Bodega Bay Reality Check
Investor A drops around $1M on a wine country property in Healdsburg. Books 51% of nights at $683/night. Annual revenue: $109,000.
Investor B buys coastal in Bodega Bay. Higher occupancy at 57%. Nightly rate: $530. Annual revenue: $98,000.
Five years later, Investor A is up $55,000 despite booking fewer nights. The lesson: occupancy is overrated when rates tell the real story.
Why This Matters Now
Less than 9% of Sonoma County properties that hit the market qualify for vacation rental permits. Scarcity everywhere, but performance varies wildly.
A Quick Note on the Numbers
This analysis uses median home prices by market to show relative positioning. Reality check: finding a vacation rental ready property at median prices in premium markets like Healdsburg is tough. Properties with the amenities that generate top tier revenue (pools, hot tubs, wine country views) typically price well above median, especially in wine country markets. Think $1.5M+ for turnkey performers in Healdsburg.
The Wine Country Winners
Healdsburg shows explosive momentum:
$109K annual revenue at $976K median (actual vacation rentals often $1.5M+)
14% revenue growth year over year
13% rate growth (guests paying more, not just booking more)
Only 10 properties under $2M came to market in 2024 that qualified for permits
Top performers exceed $300K annually
Santa Rosa emerges as the value play:
$83K annual revenue at $736K median price
Highest occupancy at 56%
76% of Healdsburg's revenue at 25% lower cost
Supply down 6% (less competition ahead)
11% rate growth year over year
The Coastal Trade Off
Bodega Bay delivers that 57% occupancy but here's the math problem: 4% higher occupancy doesn't overcome 30% lower nightly rates.
Good for: Lifestyle buyers who want coastal weekends plus rental income to offset costs. Not ideal for: Pure cash flow maximization.
The Cautionary Tale
Sebastopol sits at $1.088M median pricing (higher than Healdsburg) but generates just $78K annually. That's 28% less revenue despite higher investment.
The disconnect: Bay Area buyers drove residential appreciation up 32%, but vacation rental performance hasn't followed. You're paying for lifestyle and appreciation potential, not rental income.
The Plot Twist Nobody Talks About
Property quality matters more than location. A top performing Guerneville property ($112K) outearns a median Healdsburg property ($104K).
Within any market, performance spreads are massive. Top properties earn 2-3x median performers. Professional management increases revenue 59-187% depending on market.
Translation: Buy in the right market, then invest in making your property a standout.
The Budget Breakdown
$500K-$700K: Santa Rosa delivers wine country experience without wine country pricing or Guerneville for entry level efficiency
$700K-$1M: Santa Rosa growth story with highest occupancy rates
$1M-$1.5M: Healdsburg for brand premium or Bodega Bay for lifestyle
$1.5M+: Premium Healdsburg properties where top performers exceed $300K annually
The Real Question
High occupancy sounds great until you do the revenue math. Would you rather have 57% occupancy at $530/night or 51% occupancy at $683/night?
The data says wine country wins on cash flow. Coastal and alternative markets work when lifestyle drives the decision and you're willing to accept yield trade offs.
For investors focused purely on rental income, Healdsburg and Santa Rosa continue dominating. Healdsburg offers brand premium with 14% revenue growth. Santa Rosa offers the best value proposition in the mid tier with 76% of Healdsburg's revenue at 25% lower cost.
Guerneville works for portfolio builders at $548K median. Two properties there match one Healdsburg property's revenue while spreading risk across multiple assets.
Current Listings
What’s Happening This Week
Where: Mystic Theatre, 23 Petaluma Blvd N (Petaluma, CA)
When: Friday, October 17, 2025 • 8:00 PM
Why You Should Go: This spellbinding live-singing comedy parody of Disney's Hocus Pocus features Emmy Award-winning drag performers from RuPaul's Drag Race. Perfect for a Halloween-spirited night out with hits from pop icons, Disney classics, and the show-stopping "I Put a Spell on You."
Where: Luther Burbank Experiment Farm, 7777 Bodega Ave (Sebastopol, CA)
When: Saturday, October 18, 2025 • 11:00 AM – 3:00 PM
Why You Should Go: Free fall harvest celebration featuring apple tasting, antique apple press demonstrations, garden walks, docent tours, live folk music, and plant sales. Try the only free community apple press in the United States!
Where: Elephant in the Room (Healdsburg, CA)
When: Sunday, October 19, 2025 • 6:00 PM
Why You Should Go: This international blues artist pushes the boundaries of the genre in an intimate venue setting. Perfect for music lovers looking to end the weekend with soulful live music.
Where: Burbank Auditorium, Santa Rosa Junior College (Santa Rosa, CA)
When: Saturday, October 18, 2025 • 7:30 PM
Why You Should Go: SRJC's talented student musicians perform epic music from beloved films and video games including Night on Bald Mountain, Megalovania, The Incredibles, and more. A fun evening of familiar tunes for all ages.
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David & Jonathan here – the guys who write about real estate but really just want to talk about our favorite taco trucks. Hit us up about anything Sonoma County (or beyond). Whether you're buying, selling, or just want to know which wineries actually welcome dogs – we've got you covered.