Owners Now Stay Put 12 Years as Rates Near a 7% Wall

Author

David Hargreaves
September 11, 2026

Dead Letter Sonoma / Courtesy of Beth Schlanker

Owners Now Stay Put 12 Years as Rates Near a 7% Wall

The typical homeowner now stays put for 12 years before selling, almost double what it was twenty years ago, and mortgage rates just spiked to a fresh 52-week high on their way toward 7%. Both numbers point at the same thing: the used-home shelf isn't restocking the way it used to.

  • Mortgage applications just fell to a yearlong low as the 30-year fixed climbs toward 7%, and refinances are down 25% year over year.

  • A new state law says your HOA's ornamental lawn has a 2029 deadline attached, even though your own front yard is completely exempt.

  • Nine new restaurants have opened across Sonoma County since summer, and Santa Rosa alone picked up three of the county's most talked-about new tables.

A quiet note before we get into this week's stories — today is the 25th anniversary of September 11th. We're thinking of the lives lost, the first responders who ran toward danger, and everyone who still carries that day with them.

Market Insight

Homeowners Are Staying Put Almost Twice as Long as 2005

The typical American homeowner now stays in the same house for 12 years before selling, up from just 6.5 years two decades ago. In some metros, that number stops looking typical and starts looking permanent: Los Angeles owners hang on for 20 years, San Jose for 18.7, Cleveland for 17.8. On the other end, Louisville turns over in 8.3 years and Las Vegas in 8.8, evidence that this is a housing condition, not a national mood.

  • National tenure peaked at 13.4 years in 2020, dipped to 11.8 by 2024 as pandemic-era rates and remote work loosened people up, then climbed back to 12 in 2025

  • California's own Proposition 13 is part of the story: it locks in low property-tax bills for long-time owners, so the tax bill on staying can be a fraction of the tax bill on moving

  • The math goes beyond taxes — an owner with a low rate, a low balance, and years of appreciation can often afford to stay in a house far more easily than they can afford to buy the next one

None of this is about people loving their homes more than they used to. It is about the replacement home costing more in every column: the mortgage, the insurance, the tax bill, the closing costs. For Sonoma County, where inventory has already been tight, a nation full of homeowners who can't afford to move is one more reason the used-home shelf keeps looking bare.

Local News

Sonoma County "Banned" Data Centers. That's Not Quite True.

Most people think Sonoma County already banned data centers. Permit Sonoma's own FAQ says they aren't allowed anywhere in unincorporated Sonoma County right now, and that's technically true — but it isn't a permanent ban. It's just how the current zoning code happens to be written.

  • The county's zoning code predates AI infrastructure entirely, so data centers were never added as a permitted or conditional use, and because Sonoma uses a permissive zoning code, anything not explicitly allowed gets rejected by default

  • That protection could disappear with a routine code amendment, not a public vote — the county's General Plan Sonoma zoning update has been underway since 2021, with Board of Supervisors workshops continuing through 2026 and beyond

  • Compare that to Monterey Park in the San Gabriel Valley, where voters put a permanent data center ban directly on the ballot and passed it with almost 87% approval, a General Plan change that would now require another public vote to undo

The North Bay already has smaller regional data centers in Rohnert Park and Santa Rosa, just not the massive AI campuses making headlines elsewhere — industrial land here runs low-to-mid $200s per square foot, cheaper than Silicon Valley but pricier than the Central Valley, and wildfire-driven insurance costs make a giant campus a tougher pencil. Still, if the zoning tables ever change, land near Petaluma or Penngrove could see a real repricing, while neighbors deal with the traffic, noise, and water-use questions that come with it.

Market Insight

Mortgage Applications Just Hit a Yearlong Low as Rates Near 7%

Mortgage applications fell for the third straight week, down 2.7% overall as the average 30-year fixed rate climbed to 6.85%, the highest reading since June 2025. Refinance activity took the harder hit, off 6% week over week and a full 25% below where it sat a year ago, while purchase applications ticked down just 0.2% and are still running 4% ahead of last September.

  • The 30-year fixed spiked as high as 6.97% this week, a fresh 52-week high and nearly 70 basis points above this time last year, as the 10-year Treasury yield surged past 4.84%, its highest level since 2023

  • Persistent inflation, rising oil prices, mounting federal debt, and heavy capital demand from AI-related investment are all pushing yields higher

  • The Fed meets next week, and markets are pricing roughly 60% odds of a rate hike rather than a cut, with this week's inflation data expected to decide it

Housing economists are now warning rates could push past 7% before fall is over. The real story is the gap between purchase and refinance activity: buyers who need to move are pushing through anyway, while anyone who might refinance is simply waiting. For Sonoma County, where many owners are already locked into rates two or three points below today's market, that gap is likely to widen before it narrows.

Real Estate News

Nearly 1 in 9 Listing Photos Isn't What It Seems

A June analysis of roughly 40,000 listing photos across major real-estate portals found that nearly 11 percent had been digitally altered, not just color-corrected or brightened, but changed: fireplaces added, light fixtures inserted, cramped rooms stretched into airy ones. Buyers have a name for it now: getting "housefished."

  • California already has a rule for this — AB 723 requires licensed agents and brokers to disclose when listing photos have been digitally altered and to make the unedited originals available

  • Wisconsin's version takes effect in January 2027; New York's mayor has proposed broker disclosure rules, and the state's Department of State issued a consumer warning on AI-generated listings in late 2025

  • The industry's own guidance draws the line at intent: AI can help a buyer picture what a room could become, but it should not be used to rewrite what a room already is

What makes this one worth watching locally: a large share of Sonoma County buyers are shopping from two hours away or more, sight unseen until the second visit. A photo doing more work than the house itself is a bigger risk here than in a market where everyone walks through in person first. Ask for the unedited photos before you book the flight.

Lifestyle News

Nine New Restaurants Are Reshaping Where Sonoma County Eats

Sonoma County's restaurant scene has quietly added nine new spots since summer, and the mix says something about where the county's food culture is headed: fewer single-cuisine restaurants, more chef-driven concepts that borrow from everywhere at once.

Capriciano Osteria Chicken Parmesan / Courtesy of John Burgess

  • Dead Letter (Sonoma) turned a historic post office into a Spanish charcoal grill, moving from chicken karaage with hummus to butterflied trout on one menu

  • Santa Rosa picked up the most new openings: Café Carrusel (a theatrical pink Mexi-brunch spot with birria tacos and cotton candy cocktails), Capriciano Osteria (chef-driven Italian-American built around lemon ravioli and seafood risotto), and Dolce Rosa Cafe (premium avocado toast and tiramisu pancakes)

  • Sebastopol landed three at once: Bonnie Bagels & Co. (East Coast-style boiled-and-baked bagels), The Porch (a French bistro making everything from scratch, down to the ketchup), and Wylde Provisions Co. (a playground-style cafe built around chef-made bowls)

  • Windsor's Spur Saloon leans all the way into country-western, batwing doors and all, while Hazel relocated into a historic Occidental Victorian for wood-fired, farm-to-table pizza

For locals or visitors, these restaurants are worth a detour if you have yet to check them out.

Local News

A New State Law Just Tripled Wine Tastings at Farmers Markets

California just rewrote the rules for how small wineries reach customers directly, and the fix speaks straight to the four counties that grow most of the state's wine grapes. Senate Bill 917, signed in late August and taking effect January 1, 2027, does two things: it lets any winery sell at a certified farmers market, not just ones that grow their own estate grapes, and it triples how many wineries can pour tastings at a single market, from one permit holder to three.

  • Previously, a Type 79 permit for market tastings went to a single winery per market regardless of size, which locked out most small producers who buy fruit from outside growers rather than farming it themselves

  • The change was written specifically for boutique and small operations across Napa, Sonoma, Mendocino, and Lake counties, the backbone of California's wine-tourism economy, at a moment when the industry is openly describing itself as struggling

  • The bill's author framed it as cutting red tape so small producers get more opportunities to sell direct to consumers, skipping the distributor and retail markup entirely

For Sonoma County's wineries, many of them small enough that a Saturday farmers market table is a real sales channel, this is a rare piece of legislation that adds revenue opportunity rather than compliance cost. Worth watching which local markets add a second and third wine tent once January rolls around.

Real Estate News

The New Grass Law That Hits Your HOA, Not Your Lawn

California has a new rule about grass, and the version most homeowners heard got the target wrong. Assembly Bill 1572 bans irrigating "nonfunctional turf," decorative grass that exists to look nice rather than get used, with drinkable water. Single-family front lawns are exempt entirely. If you live inside a homeowners association, though, the common areas your HOA maintains are squarely in the bill's sights.

  • The rollout is staggered by owner type: public and state-owned properties comply starting January 1, 2026; commercial and institutional properties by 2028; HOA common areas by 2029; disadvantaged communities by 2031 or whenever funding arrives

  • "Functional" turf is carved out everywhere, so sports fields, playgrounds, picnic areas, dog parks, and cemeteries can keep their sprinklers running, even inside an HOA

  • Violators face fines up to $1,000 a day, though recycled water is still allowed on the turf the law targets

If your Sonoma County subdivision has a stretch of decorative grass along the entryway, the clubhouse lawn, or a median nobody actually walks on, the association's landscaping budget now has a deadline attached, even if that deadline is a few years out. That is a line item worth asking about before you buy into an HOA, and one your board should be budgeting for well before 2029 arrives — recycled water conversions and drought-tolerant redesigns are not cheap, and they tend to become special assessments when nobody planned ahead.

Lifestyle News

Fall's decorating mood has swung firmly toward warmth, texture, and things that look collected rather than curated this season, while a handful of once-trendy staples are officially over.

What's in:

  • Cinnamon and spiced-brown tones replacing last year's chocolate palette, layered with mixed patterns designers are calling "print-maxxing" rather than matchy-matchy

  • Decadent materials making a comeback — silk velvet, moiré, mohair, and hand-embroidered or beaded trim details

  • Game tables moving out of the basement and into the living room, alongside vintage and secondhand furniture chosen for character over cost

  • Deep purples like aubergine and mulberry as the season's standout accent color, and a return of the formal sitting room as a real, usable space

What's out:

  • Head-to-toe midcentury modern, now considered oversaturated; designers are mixing it with warmer, older pieces instead of committing fully

  • Chevron upholstery and ikat fabric, both flagged as too visually loud to age well

  • Cheap chrome knockoff furniture and over-the-top glam finishes, along with jewel-toned velvet sofas and button-tufted chesterfields, criticized for showing wear fast and trapping dirt in the tufting

The common thread across both lists: designers are rewarding pieces with some age or story behind them and getting tired of anything that reads as a trend chasing itself. For sellers staging a listing this fall, leaning into warmer tones and one or two vintage pieces will read current; leaning on last decade's chrome and chevron will read dated fast.

What's Happening This Week

Where: Alexander Valley Vineyards, 8644 CA-128 (Healdsburg, CA)

When: Saturday, September 12, 2026 • 9:00 AM–2:00 PM • $120 per person

Why You Should Go: Stomp actual wine grapes, laugh your way through Wine-O Bingo, and eat a proper harvest barbecue lunch — about as hands-on as harvest season gets. Late-entry tickets are available from 10:15 AM if you'd rather skip the stomping and go straight to the bingo.

Where: Belmont Terrace neighborhood (Sebastopol, CA)

When: Saturday, September 12, 2026 • 12:00 PM–6:00 PM • Free

Why You Should Go: Ten stages and 54 local bands and DJs spread across a neighborhood's front yards, now in its third year — the rare festival where you wander porch to porch instead of picking one stage and staying put.

Where: The Backdrop, 1455 Corporate Center Pkwy (Santa Rosa, CA)

When: Saturday, September 12, 2026 • 1:00 PM–4:00 PM, VIP entry at noon • $100 general, $150 VIP, 21+

Why You Should Go: More than 50 of the county's restaurants, wineries, breweries, and distilleries pouring in one room is the fastest way to sample the food scene without booking a single reservation. Tickets are limited and expected to sell out.

New Listings

A Private Backyard, a Short Walk to the Plaza

778 S Fitch Mountain Road, Healdsburg | 3 Bed, 3 Bath

778 S Fitch Mountain Road is coming to market soon, and the layout does most of the talking: three bedrooms, three baths, single-level living, and a full architect-led redesign rather than a light cosmetic pass. We hosted a small event at the property yesterday for past clients and neighbors, and the reaction was the same from everyone who moved through the redesigned interior and out past the pool and gazebo.

The draw is the back of the lot. A custom in-ground pool and gazebo sit among garden beds and hardscape, with the golf course just beyond the property — a calm, private setting. Inside, a vaulted-ceiling great room and large windows throughout the house keep that setting close, bringing the grounds into view from nearly every room. And for a property with this much privacy, the location is the part that's genuinely hard to find — ten minutes on foot from the Healdsburg Plaza, with none of the density that normally comes with being that close.

What actually sets it apart:

  • A full architect-led redesign, not a light refresh

  • A custom in-ground pool and gazebo set among garden beds and hardscape, with the golf course nearby

  • A ten-minute walk to the Plaza, with none of the density that usually comes with it

  • Single-level living throughout

We're excited to share the rest of the details soon, but it will be priced around $2.7 million.

On the Market This Week

A large home in the redwoods in coveted west county, apple-and-vine country.

7616 Hwy 128, Healdsburg — $2,575,000

The perfect wine country home for entertaining with pool and every outdoor living amenity imaginable.

Modern luxury meets peaceful Wine Country living on six private acres.

New 2026 single-story with owned solar, ten-foot ceilings, and a third of an acre of blank canvas.

A rare Guerneville property with a pool overlooking a vineyard.

Mill Creek Road seclusion west of Healdsburg, and a great vacation rental.

516 Grove St, Healdsburg — $1,395,000

Walkable Healdsburg under $1.5M, close to the plaza — the perfect pied-a-terre.

A creek-fronted, remodeled retreat on a private oak-shaded lot offering rare seclusion and water frontage.

The rare sub-$600k entry point in Windsor — the county's tightest, fastest-moving price band.

See every BruingtonHargreaves listing → https://www.modernlivingsonoma.com/current-listings/

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David & Jonathan here – the guys who write about real estate but really just want to talk about our favorite taco trucks. Hit us up about anything Sonoma County (or beyond). Whether you're buying, selling, or just want to know which wineries actually welcome dogs – we've got you covered.