New Listings Just Fell 41% Year Over Year

April is supposed to be the busiest listing month of the year. Instead, Sonoma County single-family new listings fell 41.2% year over year — the steepest drop on our record, and the trajectory is accelerating each month this spring.

• Inflation came in hotter than forecast this week, the 10-year Treasury hit a 10-month high, and the 30-year fixed mortgage is drifting back toward the 6.5% line. Rate cuts are off the table for now.

• The U.S. vacation rental market just posted its fourth straight month of occupancy improvement, and new-listing growth is finally slowing — the moat around existing operators just got wider.

• A 1,000-person pop-up tech village quietly takes over Healdsburg for a month every summer. The part nobody is pricing in: it's the prototype for a permanent town being planned 20 minutes north.

Look out for our new section, Short Pours, to find out about a new wine bar opening in Healdsburg and and $275 donut.

In the meantime, pour yourself a glass — this one's a meaty Friday read.

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Market Insight

New Listings Just Fell 41% — and the Drop Is Accelerating

April is supposed to be the busiest listing month of the year. Instead, it was the lightest April for new supply we have on record. Single-family new listings across Sonoma County fell 41.2% in April 2026 versus the same month a year ago, according to our pull of the MLS data. And the gap has been getting worse every month this spring.

The trajectory, not the single number, is the real story:

• February 2026 new listings: down 6.6% year over year

• March 2026 new listings: down 11.0% year over year

• April 2026 new listings: down 41.2% year over year

A few things that surprised us when we dug into the numbers by city and price band:

• Sonoma the city (not the county) saw new listings collapse 65.6% in April, with the luxury market down 70.9%. That is the steepest decline anywhere in the dataset.

• Healdsburg's entry-level segment (under $1M) is tighter than its luxury segment. Just 7 new homes hit the MLS under $1M in all of April.

• Sebastopol is the only city in the data where a segment grew year over year. Its under-$1M three-month spring window is up 13.0%.

• Santa Rosa is the most resilient market on supply, still down 28.4% in April but far less severe than the rest of the county.

For context: nationally, new listings were essentially flat year over year in April. California was slightly soft. The contraction we are seeing is concentrated in the single-family slice of Sonoma County that almost everyone here actually shops, and it has been picking up speed.

Our read, from talking to sellers every week: a lot of would-be sellers have convinced themselves it is the wrong moment to list. The logic goes — buyers cannot stomach rates near 6.5%, and if a seller is sitting on a 2-3% mortgage and would have to give it up to move, the math feels punishing. So they wait. The irony is the waiting is exactly what is keeping prices firm for the homes that do hit the market. Well-priced inventory in the right neighbourhoods is still moving, and with this little competition it is moving at strong numbers.

The full city-by-city breakdown, chart pack, and what it means for buyers and sellers is in this week's blog post.

Lifestyle News

The Empty-Nester Downsize That's Saving Six Figures

For a slice of empty-nester homeowners, the post-65 plan no longer involves a downsized cottage or a Florida condo. It involves an R.V.

Around 170,000 Americans over 55 now live full-time and nomadically in an R.V., according to the industry's trade association. Roughly half feel financially insecure. But a growing cohort has found a different story: people who sold the 3,500-square-foot house, the $400-a-month summer electricity bill, and the never-ending punch list — and used the swap to fund their retirement.

A few numbers from the cohort the New York Times profiled this month:

• One Texas couple sold their 3,500 sq ft home, moved into a 33-foot R.V., and saved $115,000 in five years

• Their monthly living costs dropped from roughly $7,500 to between $3,500 and $4,000

• Diesel runs $600-$1,000 a month, campsite spots about $400, R.V. insurance $1,656 a year, and "boondocking" on public land is free

• One Memphis couple eliminated $2,500 a month in rent and have not signed a lease since

• Only 16% of American Gen-Xers feel they have saved enough for retirement, per the Schroders 2025 US Retirement Survey

Why this matters for Sonoma County: the equity-rich, time-poor demographic that built much of the county's existing housing stock is rethinking what comes next. Some are downsizing into a smaller Sonoma County home and treating equity as portfolio. Some are leaving the county for warmer or cheaper markets. And some — more than you would guess — are selling out entirely and using the proceeds for a different shape of life. Whichever bucket fits, the planning starts with knowing what your home will actually sell for in today's market. That number is the foundation of every downsizing decision. If you would like a no-obligation read on what yours is worth right now, book a free call.

Local News

A 1,000-Person Tech Village Is Quietly Reshaping North County 

For one month every summer — May 30 to June 27 this year — about a thousand of the most ambitious technologists, biotech researchers, and deep tech founders in the world quietly take over Healdsburg. The pop-up village is called Edge Esmeralda. Most locals barely notice. The property implications are bigger than almost anyone is pricing in.

We have a new video out this week with the full breakdown — what the village actually looks like on the ground, the permanent town being planned 20 minutes north, and the two specific buyers we think benefit first. Watch it on YouTube.

A few data points:

• Year one (June 2024) drew 300-600 attendees per day, growing Healdsburg's daytime population by ~5% on peak days

• Year three is targeting 1,000 attendees, the only US location in Edge City's eight-village global rotation

• Attendees are mostly 30s-50s, mostly Bay Area-based, mostly already wealthy or about to be

• Edge City has run eight gatherings worldwide and counts more than 12,000 cumulative participants — Healdsburg is the one location they keep coming back to

The detail almost no one outside the village is tracking: the pop-up is a recruiting tool. One of the two co-organizers runs an entity called the Esmeralda Land Company, and is actively planning a permanent new town fifteen minutes north of Healdsburg, in Cloverdale. The pop-up is, by design, the prototype.

The property story plays out in two phases — and rewards two different kinds of buyer:

• Phase one — Healdsburg halo. Five to ten years of free, top-of-funnel publicity to a target audience that already buys premium homes here. Buyers should be looking for walkable to the plaza, top schools, four-plus beds, guest house or ADU. Every cohort tightens this slice of the market.

• Phase two — Cloverdale catalyst. If — when — a permanent town breaks ground 20 minutes north, Cloverdale gets the wine-country halo it has missed for thirty years. The town trades at roughly half the Healdsburg median right now. The buyers who get in before the announcement and the buyers who arrive after are buying two different markets.

For homes like our turnkey listing at 1127 Highland Ranch Road in Asti, appreciation is likely to outpace many other areas with the combination of the new bridge being put in and the halo effect of Esmeralda

The short version: anyone watching only the headline market data is missing what is actually happening at the top of the county.

Real Estate News

Inflation Just Pushed Mortgage Rates Back Toward the 6.5% Line

The market got the inflation print it did not want this week, and mortgage rates are moving in the wrong direction for anyone hoping the second half of 2026 brings cheaper borrowing.

A few numbers from the latest national data:

• April CPI: 3.8% year over year, the hottest reading since May 2023

• Core CPI: 2.8% year over year, also above forecast

• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.49% on May 13, the highest since July 2025

• 30-year Treasury yield: now above 5%

• 30-year fixed mortgage: 6.37% per Freddie Mac on May 7, drifting toward 6.45% mid-week

• Fed funds rate: held at 3.5-3.75% for the third time in 2026

The bond market is now pricing in the possibility of a Fed rate hike in the next twelve months — a meaningful shift from the rate-cut narrative that dominated early 2026. Steady job growth, sticky energy prices, and ongoing global tensions are pulling in the same direction. "Higher for longer" is back as the base case. No spike, but no fast relief either.

Stephen Barber of Rate.com, our local mortgage broker, points out that the picture for well-qualified jumbo borrowers is meaningfully better than the headline rate suggests. With a hefty down payment, buyers can still find rates in the high 5s on a jumbo ARM or around 6.125% on a 30-year fixed. The jumbo segment has been pricing inside conforming rates for much of 2026. Email him at [email protected] if you have any questions

For Sonoma County, the threshold worth watching is 6.3%. Historically, when the 30-year fixed sits below that line, transaction volume picks up. When it climbs above, sales slow. We are right at that line now, edging toward the wrong side of it.

A few practical implications:

• For buyers on the fence: locking now versus waiting becomes a tougher call. If you have been waiting for rates in the 5s, the data has moved against that scenario for the rest of 2026.

• For sellers: the supply drought we wrote about above is partly a function of these rates. Fewer competing listings means well-priced homes are still moving — but pricing has to reflect the buyer's actual financing math, not last summer's wishful comparison.

• For Bay Area transplants thinking about a second home: the math on financing a vacation rental versus paying cash just shifted again. Cash buyers have a real advantage right now.

Real Estate Guide

The Pre-Listing Window Is Getting Longer. The Hiring Window Is Getting Shorter.

Zillow's 2026 Seller's Mindset report surveyed more than 7,400 recent home sellers, and the headline behavioural shift cuts both ways: sellers are thinking about it for longer than ever, but once they reach out, they decide fast.

27% of sellers now seriously consider selling for six months or more before they list, up four points from a year ago. The typical seller still mulls it over for three to four months. But the share of long-runway sellers is climbing every year.

Then the switch flips. 62% of sellers hire the first agent they contact. There's almost no comparison shopping once the search starts in earnest.

A few other findings worth flagging for anyone thinking about selling in Sonoma County:

• Online discovery has overtaken referrals as the most common way sellers find their agent. 35% found their agent on a real estate website or app, versus 27% from a personal referral. Online has won every year since 2022.

• 78% of sellers say they're more likely to hire an agent who offers high-resolution photography on a listing. 75% say the same about virtual tours and interactive floor plans. The appeal is strongest among Millennials and Gen X — exactly the buyer demographic most Sonoma County sellers need to reach.

• 77% of sellers think their agent's commission was fair, up from 73% last year. Among those who didn't negotiate, 18% said it was because they didn't know they could.

Three takeaways for anyone weighing a sale in Sonoma County:

Deep market knowledge and real analytical skill matter more than ever. The "right price" isn't a Zillow estimate or a round number — it's the output of looking at comparable sales, absorption rates, days on market by price band, and the specific buyer pool for your neighbourhood. Ask any agent you're considering to walk you through their pricing logic. If it takes 30 seconds, that's a problem.

Responsiveness and thoroughness in the first few interactions tell you everything. Trustworthy and responsive tied as the most-valued agent qualities in Zillow's survey (78% each), and they're also the cheapest things to test. If an agent is slow or sloppy when they're trying to win your listing, they'll be slower when problems hit during escrow.

Marketing has to go further than the MLS. Posting your home to the MLS is table stakes — the agent's actual job is to find your buyer. That means video, owned media (YouTube, newsletter, a website that ranks in Google), and a real distribution plan for getting the home in front of Bay Area buyers who are searching for Sonoma County properties weeks before they ever pick up the phone.

Vacation Rental Insight

The Vacation Rental Market's Two-Halves Year Is Stabilizing 

The U.S. short-term rental market spent the first two months of 2026 looking shaky. March changed the picture.

• RevPAR (revenue per available rental) rose 2.3% year over year to $165

• ADR up 2.6% to $269

• Occupancy hit 61.3%, the fourth straight month of improvement

• Total nights booked up 5.2% versus March 2025

• Available listings up 3.3%, but new listing growth has slowed dramatically

That last point is the most important data in the report for anyone who already owns a vacation rental. The era of runaway new competition is over. The new phase has been described as "more sedate expansion" — flat population growth, falling international travel, higher mortgage rates and inflation are all pulling new entrants out of the market. The moat around existing operators just got wider.

You can see it in the pricing data. Headline ADR rose 2.6%. But the Repeat Rent Index, which tracks the same listings over time, rose 5.1%. New entrants are pricing low to compete. Operators with reviews and a track record are still pushing real price growth.

The June and July surge is being driven by the FIFA World Cup, the 250th anniversary July 4 celebrations and the late Labour Day calendar shift. Coastal California markets posted the highest occupancy gains in the top 50. AirDNA does not break out the North Bay or wine country specifically, so we will not pretend the broader California figure applies here. The pattern is clear though: California coastal demand is leading the recovery, and existing operators with review history are best placed to capture it.

New Listing

The Healdsburg Resort Second Home That Pays for Itself

10936 Eastside Road, Healdsburg | 3 Bed, 3 Bath | 1,840 sq ft | 3.25 acres | $2.5M

Healdsburg STR permits are not transferable. A new owner has to apply on their own, and most properties cannot qualify — every cap zone around the city is at or above its 5% limit. Across all of 2025, just 28 STR-eligible vacation rental properties came to market in the broader Healdsburg area at every price point combined. Roughly one every two weeks. 10936 Eastside Road is one of them — a property that qualifies a new buyer to apply for and obtain their own permit.

The home is built for the buyer who wants to use it like a private resort when they are here and let it earn its keep the weeks they are not. Single-level living, three bedrooms plus a bonus room, three baths, 1,840 square feet, sat on 3.25 private acres at the end of a dead-end lane, ten minutes from the Plaza. Vaulted great room with walls of glass, a primary suite set apart from the social core, and a new pool and spa anchoring a backyard built for wine-country evenings — covered deck, hanging swing over the water, bocce court set among mature fruit trees.

The math is the rest of the pitch. Property manager Beau Maison has underwritten the rental performance at $178,000 in annual revenue, 53% occupancy, and a $960 ADR — top-quartile numbers in the Healdsburg STR pool. At that level, the rental income meaningfully covers the carrying cost on most financing structures buyers in this segment use. The phrase our clients keep using is "second home for free" — the property pays for itself the weeks you are not there, and the rest of the time it is your own private resort.

What actually sets it apart:

• One of only 28 STR-eligible Healdsburg properties to come to market in all of 2025

• Beau Maison's underwriting: $178K revenue, 53% occupancy, $960 ADR

• A second permitted septic system already in place for a future pool house — a clear path to expand sleeping capacity and revenue ceiling

• 3.25 acres at the end of a dead-end lane, ten minutes from the Healdsburg plaza, two miles from a state park

Pick your story — second home for free, full-time wine-country residence, or pure income play. The eligibility is the rare part.

The Windsor Condo at the Center of Everything

180 Johnson St, Windsor 2 Bed · 2 Bath · 1,351 SQFT · Windsor Town Green

Here is the thing about finding a single-level condo in Windsor that actually puts you in the middle of everything: most of them do not. This one does.

180 Johnson St is a short walk from the Windsor Town Green — which means Thursday night concerts, Sunday farmers markets, and a rotating cast of reasons to be outside are basically part of your HOA amenities. The SMART train station is close enough that San Francisco is a realistic day trip. Russian River Brewing, The Grey Squirrel Coffee Company, Grata Italian Eatery, PizzaLeah — all of it within easy reach on foot.

The home itself is built for ease. Single-level living, fresh interior paint, a spacious layout, elevator access, and a primary suite with a walk-in closet and private en suite. The living area opens to a patio that the sellers' family spent five years genuinely using — dinners, wine, long conversations before walking down to the Green for the evening. It shows in the way the space feels.

What actually sets it apart:

• True walkability to Windsor Town Green, the SMART train, and the town's best restaurants and tasting rooms

• Single-level floor plan with elevator access — low-maintenance living without compromise

• A location that is easy to love on a Tuesday and even better on a Saturday

Low maintenance. High quality of life. In the heart of Windsor.

Lifestyle Trends

Tile Is Having Its Art Moment, and California Is at the Centre of It

For about fifteen years, the dominant residential design rule was simple: paint everything greige, install a beige subway tile, and price the house for whoever was flipping next. That era is over.

The new look is personalisation. Bold colour, contrasting grout, custom patterns, antique finishes, mosaics — all anchored in tile, which carries pattern and texture at architectural scale better than any other material.

A few specifics from California-based Fireclay Tile, the 40-year-old maker driving a lot of the trend:

• Mosaic sales up 30% over the last two years

• A new dedicated mosaics line just launched, including checkerboard, daisy and bordered patterns

• The bestselling lines are Antique and Stains — heavy colour variation, character-rich, deliberately not uniform

• A new Studio Glaze line where no two tiles look alike

• Showrooms expanding to Chicago, Portland and Culver City

Designers are using $13-a-square-foot tile and making it read as bespoke through layout alone — horizontal banding, plaid arrangements, gingham patterns. Grout colour is treated as a design element, not an afterthought. Bold combinations like red grout against purple glass tile are being used to amplify warmth in a room.

This matters for anyone preparing a Sonoma County home for sale or renovation. The buyers we work with at the upper end of the market — Bay Area transplants, second-home buyers, vacation rental investors — are no longer rewarding the safe-resale palette. They want a home that looks like someone made decisions, not a home that looks like it was finished by an algorithm. That changes what is worth investing in before listing, and what is not.

Current Listings

What’s Happening This Week

Grace Bowers Concert at Rodney Strong Vineyards — Healdsburg Wine & Food Experience
Where: Rodney Strong Vineyards, 11455 Old Redwood Hwy, Healdsburg, CA 95448
When: Friday, May 15, 2026 • Doors 5:30 PM | Tickets via HWFE website
Why You Should Go: A 19-year-old guitar prodigy who’s already shared stages with Dolly Parton, Bob Weir, and Cher — playing on a vineyard lawn in Healdsburg while you sip Sonoma Cabernet. This is the kind of Friday night that makes your Bay Area friends very jealous.

Vintners Plaza Grand Tasting — Healdsburg Wine & Food Experience
Where: Vintners Plaza, West Matheson St, Healdsburg, CA 95448
When: Saturday, May 16, 2026 • VIP 11:00 AM – Noon | General 12:00 – 4:00 PM |
Why You Should Go: 150+ wines, celebrity chefs including Joe Sasto, Lee Anne Wong, Viet Pham, and more, all set against a downtown Healdsburg backdrop that barely looks real. This is the flagship event of the region’s biggest food-and-wine weekend — and tickets go fast.

Pizza & Pinot Party at Copain Wines — Healdsburg Wine & Food Experience
Where: Copain Wines, 7800 Eastside Rd, Healdsburg, CA 95448 (Russian River Valley)
When: Sunday, May 17, 2026 • Noon | Shuttle departs downtown Healdsburg 11:40 AM |
Why You Should Go: Handmade pizzas from two of Sonoma County’s most beloved chefs, paired with exceptional Pinot Noir on a hilltop overlooking the Russian River Valley. There’s a shuttle, so no one has to drive. You’re welcome.

Share The Love

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• Check our YouTube channel for weekly local market updates (and occasional winery mishaps)

David & Jonathan here – the guys who write about real estate but really just want to talk about our favorite taco trucks. Hit us up about anything Sonoma County (or beyond). Whether you're buying, selling, or just want to know which wineries actually welcome dogs – we've got you covered.