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Multiple Offers at 25% Despite Inventory Surge
Shower Curtains Are Killing Your Airbnb Dreams!
David Hargreaves
April 04, 2025
It feels like the morning after the night before as tariff play havoc with world markets. While looking at stock portfolios should be avoided at all costs, the 30-year fixed loan plunged 12 basis points to 6.63%.
We now have the data in for Q1: Sonoma County's real estate market is experiencing a jaw-dropping 55.7% inventory explosion compared to last year—but don't pop the champagne just yet. This sudden bounty of listings actually conceals a troubling 15-year decline that's quietly reshaping our market.
Meanwhile, bidding wars persist even as price-reduced homes languish for 145 days, proving that waiting for that price reduction is a fools game
In this weeks edition:
The big lie: Why today's inventory bump hides a 38% collapse from 2010
Burrow alert: Healdsburg's beloved Wurst transforms into a beer lover's paradise
Million-dollar mistake: The $650K "steal" that needed a $500K driveway
Natural premiums: How organic design elements are adding 3.7% to home values
Cracking the Code: The Airbnb guest favorite badge system
Plus: Two 100% build-ready properties hit the market, and why shower curtains could be killing your Airbnb Luxe dreams.
Grab your coffee and dive in—the numbers don't lie, but they sure can be misleading
Table of Contents
Market Insights
Sonoma County Q1 Market: Surprising Shifts as Inventory Soars
The numbers are in for Sonoma County's Q1 housing market, and they reveal a dramatic reshaping of local real estate dynamics. It’s hard to know what is coming next given all the economic chaos. For now however, Inventory has exploded by an eye-popping 55.7% compared to last year (a bad year for inventory!), flooding the market with choices for buyers who now find themselves in an increasingly favorable position.
Waiting For That Price Reduction Is A Dangerous Game
Despite this surge in available homes, competition remains surprisingly fierce with multiple offers in certain segments:
25.12% of Sonoma County properties still attracted multiple offers
Entry-level and mid-market homes both saw multiple offers on roughly 26% of listings
Even luxury properties ($2M+) generated bidding wars 20.41% of the time
Perhaps most revealing is what's happening with price reductions. Conventional wisdom suggests waiting for a price cut creates opportunity, but our data tells a different story:
Properties with reduced prices spent 145 days on market (vs. 42 for non-reduced)
Price-reduced homes still generated multiple offers at nearly the same rate (25.71%)
These homes ultimately sold for just 85.6% of original asking price (vs. 99% for properly priced homes)
The market is clearly segmented by price point:
Sub-$2M properties: Seller's market territory (34% absorption rate)
Luxury segment ($2M+): Strong buyer's market (8.2% absorption)
Cash dominates high-end transactions (58% of $2M+ homes purchased without financing)
The overall county market has shifted toward more balanced conditions, though specific segments tell different stories. Next week, we'll examine how one premium Sonoma County market is defying broader trends with surprising luxury segment strength.
Lifestyle Guides
The Burrow Sprouts Where The Wurst Once Stood
Sonoma County's restaurant scene is shifting again as Healdsburg bids farewell to a longtime local favorite. After nearly 15 years serving up sausages and burgers, The Wurst on Matheson Street has closed its doors for good.
Another Great Beer Option Coming To Healdsburg
But don't worry - the space won't stay empty for long. New owners David and Elise Baeli are quickly transforming it into "The Burrow," scheduled to open next month with the tagline "Casual food. Serious beer."
What you need to know:
The Baelis purchased The Wurst around New Year's from previous owners Melissa and Kevin McDowell
The couple previously ran Hops & Hominy, a Southern food restaurant in San Francisco. A personal favorite of mine in SF!!
The Burrow promises "responsibly sourced eats, unique wine selections and the best collection of independently brewed beers"
It’s great that Healdsburg is getting another casual dining option and especially one that combines good food with good beer!
For beer enthusiasts (or those looking to become one), Sonoma County offers fantastic options near Healdsburg:
Fog Belt Brewing - inventive craft beers in a relaxed setting
Barrel Brothers in Windsor - small-batch brews with bold flavors
Russian River Brewing in Windsor - legendary Pliny and sours worth the trip
Cooperage Brewing in North Santa Rosa - experimental beers in an industrial-chic taproom
In a few weeks we will be sharing our Best Happy Hours In Healdsburg video but maybe we need to go on a roadtrip to taste the beers once the Burrow opens.
Home Guides
Selling in Sonoma? These Nature-Inspired Features Boost Home Values by 3.7%
Nature-Inspired Homes Are At A Premium
Put down that granite sample and listen up, Sonoma County home enthusiasts! Mother Nature isn't just good for your soul—she's great for your wallet too.
Recent research shows homes with nature-inspired design elements are commanding serious premiums nationwide:
White oak floors add 3.2% to home values
Venetian plaster walls increase prices by 3.0%
Outdoor showers raise values by 2.8%
Outdoor kitchens and bluestone patios each add 2.2%
Outdoor Showers Increase Value by 2.8%
What does this mean for Sonoma County? While we don't have county-specific data on these trends, we're seeing the "organic modernism" movement flourish in our local market. Buyers are increasingly drawn to our region precisely because they crave that connection to nature that Sonoma naturally provides.
For sellers: Consider strategic upgrades using natural materials before listing. An outdoor shower could add $28,000 to a $1M Sonoma property.
For buyers: These premium features might increase purchase prices, but they also suggest better resale potential down the road.
The biggest winner? Fully remodeled homes with these elements, commanding premiums of 3.7% nationally.
Whether you're looking to sell your Sonoma Valley estate or purchase that Healdsburg dream home, embracing nature in your design choices isn't just trendy—it's financially savvy.
Home Build Guides
Want a Wine Country Lot? This $650k “Steal” Needed a $500k Driveway
Last month we showed a client a gorgeous piece of land with breathtaking wine country views priced at $650K. Seemed like an incredible deal until we discovered the driveway alone would cost over $500K to build.
This hidden infrastructure cost is just one of many surprises lurking beneath Sonoma County's stunning landscapes. While national home construction averages $300-400/sq ft, Sonoma custom builds run $500-1000/sq ft for high-end homes.
The "Million Dollar Factors" that make or break your lot purchase:
Rural infrastructure can add $150K-$400K (wells, septic, power)
Septic requirements actually determine how many bedrooms your home can have
Post-2017 fires, driveway regulations have become extraordinarily strict
Soil types can literally double your foundation costs.
We have two new listings coming in the next two weeks that are 100 per cent build ready.
11250 Stewarts Point Skaggs Spring Road: Rural Luxury Without The Wait
Rural 55 Acre Lot With Full Infrastructure
55 panoramic acres just 30 minutes from downtown Healdsburg
5-bedroom perc test complete with full septic design ready for permit
High-production 30 GPM well already established
Dual 200 AMP electrical services to utility shed
Professionally developed and leveled driveway
2-acre building pad already graded and prepared
Available at $899k
1000 Borel Road: Turnkey Healdsburg City Lot
Lot With All City Services Ready To Build
0.75 acre build-ready lot just 1.5 miles from Sonoma Plaza
Complete utility package: water, electric, sewer, gas
Western exposure with 180-degree sunset and valley views
Existing driveway plans with local architect connection
Now available for $660,000
We've compiled everything you need to know about buying Sonoma County lots into our comprehensive guide. Watch our latest video where Simon Fairweather (who's built 200+ local homes) reveals the one question that could save you hundreds of thousands of dollars.
Vacation Rental Guides
Airbnb's Golden Ticket: Cracking the Guest Favorite Badge Code
Fancy a quick path to more bookings and higher rates on Airbnb? The Guest Favorite badge might be your golden ticket.
Today, 2.1 million properties (43% of eligible listings) sport the coveted Guest Favorite badge, standing out in search results and commanding premium prices. But here's the real scoop: it's not just about having good reviews.
Checking All The Boxes: Service, Amenities, Location
The Badge Breakdown
Guest Favorite: Entry-level recognition for consistently high-rated properties
Top 10%: Elite listings outperforming 90% of properties worldwide
Top 5%: Premium tier for exceptional guest experiences
Top 1%: The crème de la crème - only 63,000 listings make this cut
Hacks to Secure That Guest Favorite Badge
Perfect your first 15 reviews: These carry outsized weight. New listings that nail early reviews have dramatically higher badge chances.
Focus on accuracy and check-in: Near-perfect scores (9.9+) in these categories are non-negotiable. Airbnb weighs these more than cleanliness or location.
Stay small to win big: 55% of single-unit hosts earn the badge versus just 23% of hosts with 21+ properties. Being hands-on pays off.
Aim for perfection: A listing with a 4.85-4.95 rating has only a 20% chance of earning a top badge, while a perfect 5.0 rating gives you an 80% chance.
Go unique: 51% of unique stays (treehouses, barns, etc.) earn badges versus just 22% of hotels/hostels. Shepherd's huts and barns are most likely to hit Top 1%.
Avoid cancellations: Even one or two host cancellations can disqualify an otherwise perfect listing.
Want To Go A Step Further: Airbnb Luxe
Ready to elevate your Sonoma County vacation rental to the ultra-luxury market? Airbnb Luxe targets high-end travelers willing to pay premium rates for exceptional experiences. Here are the details of what it takes
What it takes to qualify:
Cohesive, elevated design throughout your entire property
Pristine luxury amenities and spotless presentation
Flawless hosting record with exceptional guest reviews
NO shower curtains allowed—only glass shower doors make the cut!
Professional photography showcasing unique features
Ability to pass rigorous quality walkthrough by Airbnb consultants
We just re-listed a property in Occidental, 2263 Joy Road, for $1.795m, which would make a great West County luxury vacation rental complete with pool and sauna.
Why Sonoma properties excel:
Wine country prestige commands premium rates
Destination appeal attracts luxury travelers year-round
Unique properties with vineyard views have competitive advantage
Interested in joining this exclusive club? Contact us to connect with the Airbnb representative responsible for Sonoma County Luxe rentals and discover if your property has what it takes.
Market Insights
Sonoma County's Housing Mirage: Why Today's Inventory Bump Masks a 15-Year Decline
Good news and challenging news for Sonoma County real estate watchers: While inventory is up year-over-year (as you'll see in our later story), this represents just a temporary reprieve in what has been a steady, long-term decline in new listings.
Looking at the big picture, Sonoma County's new listings have dropped a staggering 38% compared to 15 years ago. Back in 2010, our market saw 8,018 properties hit the market - a number that has been steadily falling each year since.
38% Fall In Listing Volumes Over 15 Years
This local pattern reflects a nationwide trend where homeowners are increasingly staying put. The typical American now remains in their home for 11.8 years - nearly double the tenure seen in the early 2000s.
In California, the numbers are even more dramatic:
Los Angeles: 19.4 years (longest in the nation)
San Jose: 18.3 years
San Francisco: 16.8 years
The reasons for this long-term decline are multi-faceted:
Proposition 13 tax benefits that reward staying put
Pandemic-era mortgage rates (around 3%) that make today's 6-8% rates unappealing
Aging population choosing to remain in place
Limited new construction to offset the reduced turnover
For buyers: While there are more options today than last year, selection remains historically constrained.
For sellers: Your property remains a relatively scarce commodity despite the recent uptick in listings.
The year-over-year improvement is encouraging, but don't mistake it for a return to the robust inventory levels Sonoma County enjoyed a decade ago. We're seeing a bump within what remains a long-term inventory squeeze.
Current Listings
Other Available Listings
What’s Happening This Week?
Where: The Setting Wines, 14210 Bacchus Landing Way, Healdsburg, CA
When: Saturday, April 5, 2025, 1:00 PM – 4:00 PM
Why You Should Go: Spring is in the air, and so is the aroma of exceptional wine! Join The Setting Wines for their annual Spring Release Party, featuring the debut of their 2024 Barrel Fermented Sauvignon Blanc and 2022 Oakville Cabernet Sauvignon, crafted by acclaimed winemaker Jesse Katz, paired with delectable bites from the Black Piglet food truck
Where: Occidental Community Center, 3920 Bohemian Hwy, Occidental
When: Saturday, April 5, 2025
Why You Should Go: Ready to embrace your inner jester? Join the annual Fool's Day Parade in Occidental, where silliness isn't just encouraged—it's required! Expect live music, circus performers, giant bubbles, a kids' art zone, and a costume contest with prizes for the silliest outfits. It's a day of unabashed fun and folly for all ages.
Where: SOFA Art District, Santa Rosa, CA
When: Friday, April 4, 2025, 5:00 PM – 8:00 PM
Why You Should Go: Immerse yourself in Santa Rosa's vibrant arts scene at the First Friday Art Walk in the SOFA (South A Street) Art District. This monthly event features open studios and galleries, offering a unique opportunity to meet local artists, explore diverse artworks, and enjoy live music. It's a cultural experience that brings the community together to celebrate creativity and expression.
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Check our YouTube channel for weekly local market updates (and occasional winery mishaps)
David & Jonathan here – the guys who write about real estate but really just want to talk about our favorite taco trucks. Hit us up about anything Sonoma County (or beyond). Whether you're buying, selling, or just want to know which wineries actually welcome dogs – we've got you covered.