Buyers Hit 40 As Sellers Outnumber Them 37%

The national housing market is facing a crisis of vanishing buyers, with sellers outnumbering them by a record 37%—but Sonoma County is playing by different rules because we're attracting exactly the kind of buyer everyone else is waiting for. While the rest of America watches prices stall and inventory pile up, our markets are thriving on what economists are calling "the grandbaby effect": first-time buyers now hitting 40 years old with fat down payments and repeat buyers at 62 moving closer to grandchildren instead of jobs.

This week we're diving into why age and wealth trump mortgage rates, how atmospheric rivers are quietly rewriting property values, and why one restaurant boom signals something bigger than just good eats.

Three stories worth your attention:

• Wine Country's surging restaurant scene isn't just about food—when dining spots open faster than they close, it's a leading indicator that investors see long-term growth potential, and over a dozen new restaurants have transformed our culinary landscape in the second half of 2024 alone.

• Atmospheric rivers are no longer just weather events—they're becoming real estate decision factors as these storms grow 6-9% larger and 2-6% more frequent than four decades ago, fundamentally changing how buyers evaluate properties, insurance costs, and long-term value in Sonoma County.

• Healdsburg winemaker Jesse Katz just claimed Wine Enthusiast's 2025 Winemaker of the Year award at age 40, becoming the first to score 100 points for a Sonoma County Cabernet and proving our wine country continues producing world-class talent that puts Napa in the rearview mirror.

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us—we're taking next week off to properly celebrate, so we'll see you back in your inbox on December 5th.

Until then, pour yourself something local and settle in for the full stories below

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Real Estate News

Buyers Are 40 Now: Why Wine Country's Housing Future Depends on Grandparents

It's that time of year when people start crystal ball gazing into 2026.

NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun is calling for a 14% jump in national existing home sales next year after three flat years. The catalyst? Mortgage rates averaging around 6%, down from 6.7% in 2025, driven by Federal Reserve rate cuts.

The national forecast:

• Existing home sales could surge 14% in 2026

• New home sales rise modestly after dropping 2% this year

• Home prices nationally increase 4%

• Current 30-year rates hovering around 6.3%

Here's the catch: this rosy forecast assumes buyers actually show up. But October's national data reveals a massive problem. Sellers outnumbered buyers by a record 36.8%, creating the strongest buyer's market in over a decade. That's 528,769 more sellers than buyers.

The brutal disconnect:

• Buyers dropped 1.7% to just 1.44 million, the lowest level except pandemic lockdowns

• Sellers retreated only 0.5% to 1.97 million

• Home prices rose just 1.0% year over year

• Markets in Texas, Florida, and the Sun Belt show the most severe imbalances, with some cities seeing over 100% more sellers than buyers

The gap? Sellers want top dollar to recoup their investment. Buyers are laser-focused on monthly payments. With few motivated buyers and increasingly desperate sellers, buyers are winning negotiations.

But here's where Yun's forecast could actually come true: the buyers who do show up in 2026 look nothing like previous generations.

The new buyer profile:

• First-time buyers now have a median age of 40, up dramatically from previous decades

• They're bringing higher incomes and bigger down payments

• 8% of first-timers are paying all-cash

• The typical repeat buyer is now 62

• Top reason for moving: proximity to grandchildren, not job changes

Sonoma County's reality is more nuanced. Our Q3 data shows inventory jumped 31.5% to 1,285 homes and days on market increased 23% to 62 days. But at 3.2 months of supply, we're still in seller's market territory, not the buyer's market gripping the rest of the nation. The key difference? Our markets are attracting exactly the buyers Yun describes. Healdsburg saw sales surge 48.8% after prices corrected 16.4% to $976,000. Sebastopol absorbed a stunning 79.3% inventory surge while sales still grew 7.5%, with homes selling in just 54 days.

But the disconnect shows up elsewhere. Sonoma achieved 11.4% price appreciation to $1.06 million but sellers are cutting prices more than anywhere else, with homes selling at just 91.3% of original list price. Windsor's absorption rate collapsed 24.5% and pending sales fell 9.5%. Santa Rosa saw sales decline 2.8% with September hitting just $703,000, down from a July/August average of $755,000.

Will 2026 finally break the stalemate? In Sonoma County, we're already seeing the answer. Markets like Healdsburg and Sebastopol that align with what these older, wealthier, lifestyle-focused buyers want are thriving. Markets banking on traditional buyer profiles are struggling. The grandbaby effect is real here, and success won't come from waiting for rates to drop. It'll come from understanding that the buyers showing up have different priorities, deeper pockets, and zero patience for overpriced properties that don't deliver on the lifestyle promise.

Lifestyle News

83% of Homes Are Wrong About Christmas Trees (Or Are They?)

America's Christmas tree tradition is having an identity crisis. While 25-30 million real trees get cut down annually (14.5 million in 2022 alone), artificial trees now dominate 83% of U.S. households planning to display a tree this season. That's a complete flip from the 1980s when 60-70% of households chose real.

The numbers tell the story:

• 350 million real Christmas trees currently growing on 16,000 U.S. farms

• 88% of artificial trees imported from China in 2023

• Average artificial tree lifespan: 5-10 years before hitting the landfill

• U.S. Christmas tree market valued at $1.44 billion in 2025

The shift comes down to convenience and cost. Real tree lovers cite tradition and that fresh pine smell. Artificial fans point to setup ease, durability, and no needle cleanup. The environmental debate rages on—real trees are biodegradable but require land and water, while plastic trees create manufacturing emissions and landfill waste.

Where to See Sonoma County's Most Magical Trees

Winter Lights Tree Lighting — Santa Rosa

• Date/Time: Friday, November 28, 4-7pm

• Place: Old Courthouse Square, Santa Rosa

• Santa Rosa kicks off the holiday season with live entertainment, holiday treats, and Santa photos as the massive tree lights up. Free event with perfect access to downtown restaurants after.

Lighting of Sonoma Plaza

• Date/Time: Saturday, November 29, 5-8pm

• Place: Historic Sonoma Plaza, 453 1st Street East, Sonoma

• Wine Country's favorite holiday kickoff transforms the plaza with a quarter-million lights, live music, food trucks, wine and beer. Arrive early—parking fills up fast but the festive magic is worth it.

Merry Healdsburg Tree Lighting & Holiday Market

• Date/Time: Friday, December 5, 5-9pm

• Place: Healdsburg Plaza (Healdsburg Avenue & Matheson Street), Healdsburg

• Watch 5,000+ twinkling lights illuminate the Plaza as Santa arrives and The Sugarplums perform holiday classics. Holiday Night Market lines the streets with local artisans, jewelry, food vendors, and Wine Country charm. Free photos with Santa in America's #3 Best Christmas Town (Newsweek).

Windsor Holiday Celebration & Charlie Brown Christmas Tree Grove

• Date/Time: Thursday, December 4, 5-8pm (tree lighting at 7pm)

• Place: Windsor Town Green, Windsor

• The 23rd annual tradition features 200+ individually decorated trees, youth performances, crafts, hot chocolate, food vendors, and Hanukkah Menorah dedication. When the tree lights up at 7pm, "snow" begins falling on the grove. The grove stays lit through January 1st.

Local News

Wine Country Winemaker Beats Napa to Industry's Most Prestigious Award

Sonoma County can claim bragging rights this week as one of its own just landed wine's biggest honor.

Jesse Katz, the Healdsburg based winemaker behind Aperture Cellars, earned Wine Enthusiast's 2025 Winemaker of the Year award. At 40, he's already racked up accolades that take most vintners a lifetime: Forbes' first winemaker on their "30 Under 30" list, Wine Enthusiast's first 100 point score for a Sonoma County Cabernet, and a client roster featuring Justin Timberlake, Jessica Biel, and the LA Lakers.

The family creative gene runs deep. His father, acclaimed photographer Andy Katz, shoots the labels for their Devil Proof wines, turning bottles into collectible art pieces.

Quick hits on Katz's resume:

• His 2021 Farrow Ranch Cabernet from Alexander Valley scored that historic 100 points from Wine Enthusiast

• His 2022 Devil Proof Malbec and 2020 Cabernet both earned 100 points from critic Jeb Dunnuck

• One of his Napa collaborations sold for $1 million per bottle at auction in 2021

• He's the go to winemaker for SingleThread, Valette Wines, and Montage Healdsburg

Hawaii bound wine lovers can catch Katz and Chef Dustin Valette December 4th through 7th at Kona Village for the Aina Reserves Wine Weekend. The four day event debuts Aperture's Collage portfolio in Hawaii with curated tastings and culinary pairings at the Three Michelin Key resort ranked number one in Hawaii by Travel + Leisure readers.

New Listing - Coming Soon

This Solar-Powered Luxury Ranch Comes With Everything Except the Mortgage Stress

1127 Highland Ranch Road, Asti | 3 bed, 2 bath | 2,527 sq ft | 6.34 acres

Six acres in Asti where someone already did the hard part: ripping out everything boring and replacing it with the stuff you'd pick if you had unlimited time and a Pinterest board that made sense.

We're talking hand-chipped travertine floors (because regular travertine is for amateurs), Siberian white oak planks running throughout, and bathrooms that look like they belong in a spa where they charge you $40 for cucumber water. The kitchen got the full treatment—Thermador built-ins, custom pantry that actually fits things, windows everywhere so you're not cooking in a cave.

Outside, the landscaping doesn't scream "we tried too hard"—olive trees, raised beds, stained cedar accents that'll age better than most of us. The current owner hosts 17 family members for dinner here without breaking a sweat, which tells you everything about the kitchen-to-deck flow.

Why This Actually Matters:

• Hand-chipped travertine, Siberian oak floors, plastered walls—every surface upgraded to the good stuff

• Solar + battery backup means energy independence without joining a commune

• Single-level living with soaring ceilings and Andersen windows that flood every room with light

• Gated entry, 6+ private acres, three-car garage with built-ins—turnkey luxury meets actual elbow room

• Master suite with hillside views and a soaking tub that'll ruin hotel bathrooms for you forever

Book your showing before someone who reads faster gets here first.

Area Guide

Wrong Town Costs Wine Country Buyers $455K in Lost Value

The biggest mistake people make when moving to Sonoma County? Choosing the wrong city—and it costs them $455,000 in lost value. After helping 400+ families relocate here, I've seen patterns emerge that separate smart buyers from those who regret their choice. The gap between Cloverdale's $545,000 median and Healdsburg's $1 million isn't just about money—it's about matching your lifestyle to the right community rhythm. Some want walkable plazas and Michelin-star dining. Others need strong schools and family-friendly parks. A few prioritize creativity over polish, or value over status.

Watch our complete city breakdown to discover which of Sonoma County's nine incorporated cities fits your investment goals and lifestyle needs. We reveal insider data on appreciation patterns, hidden value pockets in expensive markets, micro-neighborhoods that outperform, and the decision framework that helps buyers pick their perfect match the first time.

Key Intel You'll Get:

• Why East vs. West Santa Rosa feels like two different investments

• The family-first town with consistent schools (no boundary wars)

• Which affordable city mirrors pre-luxury Healdsburg

• How climate swings 15 degrees between towns 20 minutes apart

• Best value plays for first-timers, families, and lifestyle investors

The house doesn't make you happy long-term. Finding the town that matches your daily rhythm does. Get this decision wrong and even the nicest property feels off. Get it right and you'll wonder why you didn't move sooner

Local News

Atmospheric Rivers Are Rewriting Wine Country Real Estate Rules

Last week's atmospheric river marked the official start of storm season in Sonoma County, dumping significant rainfall across the region and serving as a wet reminder that these weather events are becoming more intense, more frequent, and more expensive for homeowners.

The numbers tell the story:

• Atmospheric rivers now impact 6-9% more area than they did in 1980

• Their frequency has increased 2-6% over the past four decades

• These storms deliver 30-50% of California's annual precipitation

• 2023 saw 19 atmospheric rivers hit California, producing 140% of normal annual rainfall

What this means for Sonoma County real estate:

Insurance costs are climbing. Multiple atmospheric rivers mean more flood claims, mudslides, and tree damage. Properties in flood zones or near waterways face steeper premiums and reduced coverage options.

Infrastructure matters more than ever. Homes with proper drainage, updated gutters, and hillside stabilization maintain value better. Buyers are asking more questions about flood history and property elevation.

Longer dry spells between storms. Climate models show atmospheric rivers will pack more punch but arrive with bigger gaps in between, stressing water supplies while increasing flood risk.

The disclosure conversation is changing. Sellers need detailed records of storm damage, repairs, and drainage improvements. Buyers want to see maintenance history before making offers.

For those eyeing Sonoma County property, understanding atmospheric river patterns isn't just environmental awareness—it's financial due diligence that directly impacts insurance costs, maintenance budgets, and long-term value.

Lifestyle News

When Restaurants Open Faster Than They Close, Property Values Follow

When restaurants are opening faster than they're closing, that's usually a good sign for real estate values. Sonoma County just added over a dozen new dining spots in the second half of 2024, with more slated for early 2026—a clear indicator that investors and entrepreneurs see long-term growth potential here.

For anyone considering a move to wine country, the dining scene matters. It's part of the lifestyle equation that makes Sonoma County such a compelling place to invest your resources. Here's what's reshaping the local food landscape:

Santa Rosa

• Paris Baguette opened at Montgomery Village with a self-serve bakery model that's drawn massive crowds. This South Korean chain specializes in French pastries—grab tongs, fill your tray, and indulge. The lines have been intense since day one.

• Red Eye BBQ runs Saturday-only pop-ups on Sebastopol Road with Texas-style smoked meats. Chef Bob Costarella's beef cheek and ribs sell out fast—preorder online for the best selection.

• J&A Lounge took over the frequently-changing 643 Fourth Street spot downtown, offering weekend brunch and burger-focused dinner service.

Healdsburg

• Quail & Condor is expanding (soon) into a much larger space at 44 Mill Street. Same exceptional pastries and bread, but now with room to breathe—plus hot breakfast items like Turkish breakfast platters ($22) and sourdough waffles.

• Folia at the new Appellation Healdsburg resort features chef Charlie Palmer's son Reed running the kitchen. Three-course prix fixe menus highlight seasonal pastas, Mt. Lassen trout, and roasted chicken.

• The Burrow is the family-friendly spot parents have been waiting for—chef-driven food for adults, kid-tested menu for little ones, plus a dedicated play area to keep everyone happy.

• Dutch Door Donuts serves imperfectly-shaped, fried-to-order doughnuts that prioritize flavor over Instagram aesthetics. Toppings range from brown butter to blackberry glaze.

• Jimtown & Then Sum reopened the iconic Alexander Valley location after nearly two years. Dim sum specialist Michelle Wood now serves handmade dumplings, bao, and shu mai alongside classic deli sandwiches.

Forestville

• Baso Annex is the interim cafe from the Bazaar Sonoma team after their restaurant suffered a devastating fire. They're serving greatest hits like zhong dumplings, Taiwan braised pork rice, and beef noodle soup for $9-24. Open Thursday-Sunday, 5-9:30pm.

Geyserville

• Pastasciutta is a new pasta and prepared food shop from the Diavola team, located steps from their acclaimed restaurant on Geyserville Avenue.

Coming in 2026

• Acre Pizza expands from Sebastopol and Cotati to Healdsburg

• Iggy's Burger moves from Healdsburg to The Barlow in Sebastopol (taking over the former Cock Robin space)

• Bonnie's Bagels brings fresh bagels to Sebastopol

The restaurant expansion tells a bigger story: Sonoma County continues attracting investment capital and culinary talent. For buyers evaluating the area, a thriving restaurant scene correlates with population growth, disposable income, and quality of life—all factors that support property values over time.

Current Listings

What’s Happening This Week

Django Festival Allstars featuring Veronica Swift — Raven Performing Arts Theater

Where: 115 North Street, Healdsburg, CA
When: Saturday, November 22, 2025 • 7:00 PM (Doors at 6:00 PM)
Why You Should Go: High-energy Parisian jazz with guitars, violin, accordion, and vocals that'll make you forget you're not in a Montmartre jazz club. This is the kind of show that reminds you why you pay Wine Country prices.

T Sisters — HopMonk Tavern Sebastopol

Where: 230 Petaluma Avenue, Sebastopol, CA
When: Friday, November 21, 2025 • 8:00 PM
Why You Should Go: Close harmonies meet eclectic folk in the rustic Abbey venue—perfect for a laid-back Friday night with their new "Sheroes" EP celebrating legendary female performers. Plus, HopMonk's beer selection doesn't hurt.

Healdsburg Turkey Trot — Healdsburg Running Company

Where: 333 Center Street, Healdsburg, CA
When: Thursday, November 27, 2025 (Thanksgiving Day) • 8:00 AM
Why You Should Go: Work off that turkey before you even eat it! This beloved 5K fun run/walk through downtown Healdsburg draws 3,000+ runners, walkers, families, and furry friends—many in costumes. Benefits the Drew Esquivel Scholarship for Healdsburg High scholar-athletes, so you'll feel good while burning calories.

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David & Jonathan here – the guys who write about real estate but really just want to talk about our favorite taco trucks. Hit us up about anything Sonoma County (or beyond). Whether you're buying, selling, or just want to know which wineries actually welcome dogs – we've got you covered.